An almost 10% error rate even by the best on the list for primaries.... So the ratings have not changed very much. The top-rated pollsters — Selzer & Co. and The New York Times/Siena College — will be familiar to longtime readers. For the record, though, eligible polls in … [Read more...] about Nate Silver comes out with pollster ratings…..
Nate Silver
Nate Silver on Democrats Good Election Night 11/7/2023….
Democrats in America continue to out perform polls and prediction's in the post Trump Era..... RightWingNut's on every level have done a DAMN good job helpiing Democrats by continuing to back an ex-President facing 91 criminal charges and push strick abortion limits that … [Read more...] about Nate Silver on Democrats Good Election Night 11/7/2023….
Nate Silver on Old Timer Biden AND Trump…..
Six weeks ago, when I considered whether Democrats would be better off nominating someone other than Biden, my conclusion was complicated: With medium confidence, I think the risks of a serious primary challenge to Biden at this point in time would outweigh the benefits … [Read more...] about Nate Silver on Old Timer Biden AND Trump…..
The Presidential Election is in 2024….Remember the polls Are For TODAY…
After their poll yesterday that joined others in showing President Biden and Donald Trump running neck and neck with Biden slightly ahead.... CNN went into overdrive about how Biden is in trouble.... Ask nost people if they think Trump could win NEXT YEAR in the … [Read more...] about The Presidential Election is in 2024….Remember the polls Are For TODAY…
Nate Silver & Co admit their forecasting needs changes…
The iconic pundit admits that his projections based on his poll sampling needs to be changed for the better..... The linked piece is LONG and detailed.... At the end of each election cycle, I like to consider what changes we might make to our models in forthcoming cycles. … [Read more...] about Nate Silver & Co admit their forecasting needs changes…
Nate Silver….Less than week out…The Presidential race isn’t tightening….
We ALL say it will.... It's natural.... But the pundit guru Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight doesn't see a redo of 2016 when Donald Trump's polling rose and Hillary Clinton's had the bottom begin to drop out around October 17th.... Joe Biden's national and state … [Read more...] about Nate Silver….Less than week out…The Presidential race isn’t tightening….
FiveThirtyEight releases its Presidential forecast…Biden by a mile…..
Less than 3 months out? Joe Biden by more that 2-1..... Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance. 2020 … [Read more...] about FiveThirtyEight releases its Presidential forecast…Biden by a mile…..
Trump announces a guess of 3,000 virus deaths per day by June…Questions are asked….
The average fatality rate right now has dropped for early March highs down to between 1,000 and 1,500 a day... The current death toll is around 65,000.... Donald Trump's announced 100,000 deaths...Which would jump the daily numbers 50% or more has immediately come under … [Read more...] about Trump announces a guess of 3,000 virus deaths per day by June…Questions are asked….