model based on presidential approval gives almost the exact same probabilities to Trump as the new 538 model does – about 30% chance to win at this point, and a little under 10% if current polling holds until the election centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar
Less than 3 months out?
Joe Biden by more that 2-1…..
Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight