The iconic pundit admits that his projections based on his poll sampling needs to be changed for the better..... The linked piece is LONG and detailed.... At the end of each election cycle, I like to consider what changes we might make to our models in forthcoming cycles. … [Read more...] about Nate Silver & Co admit their forecasting needs changes…
Nate Silver
Nate Silver….Less than week out…The Presidential race isn’t tightening….
We ALL say it will.... It's natural.... But the pundit guru Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight doesn't see a redo of 2016 when Donald Trump's polling rose and Hillary Clinton's had the bottom begin to drop out around October 17th.... Joe Biden's national and state … [Read more...] about Nate Silver….Less than week out…The Presidential race isn’t tightening….
FiveThirtyEight releases its Presidential forecast…Biden by a mile…..
Less than 3 months out? Joe Biden by more that 2-1..... Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance. 2020 … [Read more...] about FiveThirtyEight releases its Presidential forecast…Biden by a mile…..
Trump announces a guess of 3,000 virus deaths per day by June…Questions are asked….
The average fatality rate right now has dropped for early March highs down to between 1,000 and 1,500 a day... The current death toll is around 65,000.... Donald Trump's announced 100,000 deaths...Which would jump the daily numbers 50% or more has immediately come under … [Read more...] about Trump announces a guess of 3,000 virus deaths per day by June…Questions are asked….
States that have had virus numbers drop from a low of 10% to 50%….As of Late April 2020
Nate Silver over @ FiveThirtyEight has been checking the numbers reported*.... Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Replying to @NateSilver538 8 states have fallen by 10-25% from their peaks. This starts to count as real … [Read more...] about States that have had virus numbers drop from a low of 10% to 50%….As of Late April 2020
Get ready for an increase number of virus hits…
Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Folks, there is not a lot to be learned from how much the number of US coronavirus positives increase over the next week. It's liable to be more a function of testing ramping up than anything else, and testing … [Read more...] about Get ready for an increase number of virus hits…
Looks like Joe Biden will win Washington State Democratic Primary also…
Joe Biden is up to win 5 of this past Tuesday 6 Democratic contests... With 77% of the vote counted...11:02 PM EST NY....3/11/2020 Biden....35%....17 Delegates Sanders...33.7%.....17 Delegates Warren.....11.2%....Not Running Bloomberg....9.9%...Not … [Read more...] about Looks like Joe Biden will win Washington State Democratic Primary also…
Here’s some Dave Wasserman analysis of Iowa and NH…
....from twitter.... There is NO mention of Joe Biden in all this.... Again... Pundits have essentially written him off right now.... He did do terrible in Iowa and New Hampshire .... But the next two state's and Super … [Read more...] about Here’s some Dave Wasserman analysis of Iowa and NH…