There probably is more... But using the Silver template ? I will make a personal observation... Of the five groups? Hillary Clinton got four.... Using that as a benchmark.... Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and whole lot of others running in the nomination … [Read more...] about Nate Silver divides the 2020 Democratic Presidential primary voters into 5 groups…My take?
Nate Silver
Could polls be underestimating Democratic gains?
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight floats the idea that the YUGE fundraising that Democrats have done going into the upcoming midterms could just add up to the bigger number of gains forecasters are estimating.... The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so … [Read more...] about Could polls be underestimating Democratic gains?
FiveThirtyEight on will the Midterms effect who Dem’s pick in 2020?
Joe Biden IS the frontrunner right now.... While there are a LOT of people looking to run? Biden remains the guy who can pull the votes from the middle of the party, which is the sweet spot..... The outcome of the midterms actually should have little effect on if Biden … [Read more...] about FiveThirtyEight on will the Midterms effect who Dem’s pick in 2020?
Nate Silver thinks Brett Kavanaugh should drop out….
He explains that Trump and Republicans could get the same ideological bent form several other choices for the Supreme Court with less hurt.... President Trump and Congressional Republicans are not afraid to take unpopular actions in pursuit of their ideological goals. Last … [Read more...] about Nate Silver thinks Brett Kavanaugh should drop out….
Trump vs Avenatti in 2020?
The question is why hasn't Trump gone after Stormy Daniels attorney? twitter..... Nate Silver @NateSilver538 Replying to @allahpundit Trump doesn't want Avenatti to peak too soon; will start flaming a month before Iowa. That will lead to a huge burst of … [Read more...] about Trump vs Avenatti in 2020?
Is the Republican party ONLY Donald Trump’s base?
Nate Silvers ponders the above question.... Nate SilverVerified account @NateSilver538 Jul 22 Old enough to remember to like 2 years ago when the fashion was to treat the numbers among independents as the most important part of the poll. Now just the … [Read more...] about Is the Republican party ONLY Donald Trump’s base?
Axios …Dem’s can’t win the Senate…Nate Silver…Don’t believe this….
Beware of bad forecasts based on bad polling analysis ...... To win the Senate, Democrats need to keep all 10 seats they're defending in states that President Trump won in 2016 — plus pick up two more seats. Why it matters: That's not happening. A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll … [Read more...] about Axios …Dem’s can’t win the Senate…Nate Silver…Don’t believe this….
In Defense of Polls….Nate Silver…Pollster Ratings 2018
He mounts a defense of political polling and does his annual ratings of outfits.... With the 2018 midterm elections approaching, we’ve updated FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings for the first time since the 2016 presidential primaries. Based on how the media portrayed the … [Read more...] about In Defense of Polls….Nate Silver…Pollster Ratings 2018