Two weeks out.... Nate Cohn on his view of the status of the polls two weeks out from Election Day.... With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer. Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are essentially tied — … [Read more...] about Slight shift to Trump in the polls….Harris with a slim lead….
Polling Models
Nate Silver…Disregard ‘Internal Political Polls’…..
They are ordered and paid for by the candidate..... The outfits ain't gonna get asked back if their product doesn't make their client happy? Most political observers find the idea of having access to inside information irresistible. Humans are fascinated by gossip. And … [Read more...] about Nate Silver…Disregard ‘Internal Political Polls’…..
A reality check on the polling model’s…..
Buyer Beware..... Why Forecast Models Aren’t Any Better Than Polls Natalie Jackson: “Forecasts based on polls and election ‘fundamentals,’ like what FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and Nate Silver produce, are more intriguing from an empirical standpoint. The … [Read more...] about A reality check on the polling model’s…..
Daily Kos chews on the latest Wash Post poll…..
Media editors sometimes have their OWN agenda with stuff they 'report'.... Well, maybe for the first time in history, the Post decided not to create a likely voter model. However, if you go to the research firm that actually executed the survey, you get a story that puts the … [Read more...] about Daily Kos chews on the latest Wash Post poll…..