Republican Governor Abbott leading his Democratic opponent by only 1% point…..
Talarico leading Paxton by 3% points….
I ain’t betting on a Democratic sweep in Ruby Red Texas….
But?
These polling numbers are from a Fox Poll…..
President Donald Trump won the Lone Star state by nearly 14 percentage points in 2024, but a new Fox News Poll of Texas registered voters suggests this year’s Senate race is far less settled. Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton has yet to fully unify the GOP despite the president’s endorsement in the GOP primary against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.
In addition, more voters are concerned Paxton lacks the character to serve than worry Democratic challenger James Talarico is too extreme, and more Democrats than Republicans are extremely motivated to vote (by 7 points) and extremely interested in the midterms (by 6).
Those dynamics give Talarico a 3-point edge over Paxton (51% vs. 48%) in the Senate contest (within the survey’s margin of sampling error).
Talarico’s advantage in the race grows to 6 points among both extremely motivated and extremely interested voters (53% vs. 47% in each group).
Most independents (68%) and virtually all Democrats support Talarico (98%), while fewer Republicans are unified behind Paxton (89%).
In part, that’s because one quarter of non-MAGA Republicans back Talarico (24%)….
…
Trump received a 55% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable rating in the 2024 Texas Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey. Today, those numbers have flipped: 45% favorable vs. 54% unfavorable, for a minus-9 net negative rating.
Paxton garners a minus-6 net personal rating, 45% favorable vs. 51% unfavorable, while Talarico is in positive territory by 6 points, 49% vs. 43%….
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Despite Texas being a border state, nearly 4 in 10 say inflation will be the most important issue to their Senate vote, while 2 in 10 say immigration and 1 in 10 say healthcare, political divisions and unemployment….
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Abbott has a net positive personal rating by a single point (50% favorable vs. 49% unfavorable). Hinojosa is in positive territory by 11 points (45% vs. 34%), although nearly 1 in 5 are unable to rate her.
Texas last elected a Democratic governor in 1990 (Ann Richards), a Democratic Senator in 1988 (Lloyd Bentsen), and a Democratic presidential candidate in 1976 (Jimmy Carter)….
…
For the governor’s race, Hispanic voters back Hinojosa by 16 points in the new survey. By comparison, they preferred Beto O’Rourke over Abbott by 14 points in 2022.
More than half of Hispanic voters view Talarico (57% favorable), Hinojosa (53%), and the Democratic Party (53%) positively, while more than half have negative views of Paxton (56% unfavorable), Abbott (56%), Trump (61%), and the Republican Party (59%)….
Note….
Paxton and Abbott probably will pull it out ….
But they ALSO should be worried..…
Ya NEVER Know?
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