Do Democrats Have the Edge to Take the Senate? March 15, 2026 at 9:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Bettors at Polymarket now think Democrats are slightly favored to win control of the Senate in the 2026 midterm elections. Note.... The Polymarket 'Betting' … [Read more...] about Betting on a Democratic US Senate next year?
Political Projections/Forecasts
Political Betting market company Polymarket funny business to support Trump?
There IS a new report that the betting outfit COULD be working to help the Trump Presidency campaign..... ...In the puzzle that is the 2024 election, many people are turning to prediction markets offered by Kalshi and rivals such as Polymarket or PredictIt. They lure some to … [Read more...] about Political Betting market company Polymarket funny business to support Trump?
2024 General Election Thoughts…End of April 2023….
I said in my post on the 2024 Democratic Primary that the party’s chances of winning the White House would not be impacted. Whether it’s Biden or on the off chance it’s Marianne Williamson, D’s have an 85% chance of victory, and that is merely against a non-Trump/DeSantis … [Read more...] about 2024 General Election Thoughts…End of April 2023….
There ARE Different polls saying Different things going into the Midterm vote…
REALLY? Of course there ARE.... I post polls from Real Clear Politics here.... For those who don't it? They present an easy display of daily polls.... But? They often exclude polls favourable to Democrats.... Fox, Rasmussen and Trafalgar go one … [Read more...] about There ARE Different polls saying Different things going into the Midterm vote…
Nate Silver & Co admit their forecasting needs changes…
The iconic pundit admits that his projections based on his poll sampling needs to be changed for the better..... The linked piece is LONG and detailed.... At the end of each election cycle, I like to consider what changes we might make to our models in forthcoming cycles. … [Read more...] about Nate Silver & Co admit their forecasting needs changes…
Pundit Charlie Cook joins the chorus predicting a Trump one term…
While the betting markets have President Trump keeping his job for another 4 years.... A growing body of political pundits are seeing just the opposite... There is a growing body of evidence that Donald Trump won't be able to magically pull a rabbit out of a hat and win his … [Read more...] about Pundit Charlie Cook joins the chorus predicting a Trump one term…