After their poll yesterday that joined others in showing President Biden and Donald Trump running neck and neck with Biden slightly ahead….
CNN went into overdrive about how Biden is in trouble….
Ask nost people if they think Trump could win NEXT YEAR in the election?
Most will shake their head and say NO….
Nate Silver does a piece on the fact that NOW ain’t next November….
Labor Day weekend traditionally marks the beginning of the end of election season, the turn to the final stretch where the news cycle becomes subsumed by the campaign. Every detail of every poll is scrutinized, and every news event is dissected, based on whether it might swing a few thousand votes in Georgia, Wisconsin or Arizona. It’s also the point beyond which, if you’re a professional covering the campaign, it becomes hopeless to inject any nuance or uncertainty into the discussion. Most people just want the anxiety to be over and to hear exactly one thing — that their guy is going to win.
In line with the usual pattern, something about the mood surrounding the 2024 campaign has shifted over the past week. For instance, a series of seemingly low-stakes debates about polling became fervent arguments on The Platform Formerly Known As Twitter, from “CNN poll” becoming a trending topic to an engagement-farming account causing a ruckus by pointing out that a Republican polling firm was doing polling for Republican clients (the complaint is every bit as stupid as it sounds….
It’s not hard, for instance, to find polls from this point in 2015 showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Trump.
There are exactly four things you need to know about the horse race right now:
- Joe Biden could win.
- Donald Trump could win.
- Someone other than Biden or Trump could win.
- The odds of these scenarios do not shift very much from day to day.
I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning). But unless you’re making trades of some kind, there probably isn’t a lot to be gained from further precision than that right now…..