We ALL say it will….
But the pundit guru Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight doesn’t see a redo of 2016 when Donald Trump’s polling rose and Hillary Clinton’s had the bottom begin to drop out around October 17th….
Joe Biden’s national and state polling numbers have held and his national numbers have climbed minus the leaning right outfits poll results in the last 24 hours….
Things are cruisng along for what looks like a decent sized Joe Biden win says Silver…
After a surprisingly sluggish weekend for polling, the floodgates have opened, with a mix of high-quality polls, low-quality polls and pretty much everything in between. And although there are some outliers in both directions, they tell a fairly consistent story, overall: A steady race nationally, perhaps with some gains for Joe Biden in the Midwest….
On average, Biden leads by 9 percentage points using a simple average of post-debate national polls, which matches his 9 point lead in our fancy-schmancy official FiveThirtyEight national average.
It’s a bit of a weird mix of polls, though, with more quantity than quality. The only two fully live-caller national polls in here are from CNN and CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies, which show Biden leading by 12 points and 11 points, respectively. On the one hand, the trendlines aren’t so bad for Trump in those live-caller polls. He trailed by 16 points in CNN’s previous national poll, and by 9 points in the past Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies poll (or by 11 if you prefer to compare it to the prior NBC/Wall Street Journal national poll, which uses the same polling team).
On the other hand, the higher-quality national polls are showing worse results for Trump than the lower quality polls, which is rarely a good sign. More highly-rated online firms, such as YouGov, Morning Consult, and Ipsos, show Trump trailing by margins ranging from 9 to 12 points.
At least some of the fluctuations in our national polling average seem to reflect shifts in the ratio of high-quality and low-quality surveys. This can go through cycles, and recently the higher-quality firms have mostly been concentrating on state polling. Most of them will release their final national polls soon, though, and it wouldn’t be surprising if, following CNN and CNBC’s example, a few more of them show double-digit leads for Biden.
Something else to note: Although there’s been a slight decline in Biden’s national polls since the debate, a majority of state polls show his position improving. To be more precise, Biden has gained 0.7 percentage points in the average state poll since the debate, while he’s lost 0.5 points in the average national poll. That brings the national and state polls into better alignment after a period where national polls suggested that Biden led by 10 to 11 points but state polls were more consistent with a lead of about 9 points instead….