Nate Silver Prediction Model points to a +63% chance of a 2027 Democratic US Senate…..

Silver thinks the ‘tossup’ calls from pundits do NOT reflect the state of US Senate Races polling less than. 45 days out from the votes being counted for the 2026 Midterm elections on Nov. 3rd…..

His figuring indicated that Trump 2.0 has drastically LOST support for Republicans from what Trump had less than 2 years ago….

An Lousy economy, tariff’s, war , strong anti-immigration push and otherwise chaotic term for this President looks like a terrible voter pushback against the Republican Party members at the voting box….

Will the polls be Right?

Nate Silver sure DOES think so…

 

In FLIPR’s view, it’s no longer accurate to describe the battle for the U.S. Senate as a “toss-up.”

In our terminology, that designation covers all races where neither party has more than a 60 percent chance of winning. But Democrats’ Senate chances are now between 63 percent and 69 percent in all three versions of FLIPR, including 65 percent in our headline “Deluxe” version.

It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far. And just to be abundantly clear, the Senate is salvageable for Republicans or at least bungle-able for Democrats. Democrats are kicking the equivalent of a 50+ yard field goal. Kickers make most of those kicks these days, but there are still plenty of ways to shank it.

But for what it’s worth, FLIPR is in pretty strong alignment with prediction markets, which have Democrats at 61 percent to win the Senate. Conversely, expert ratings imply a much different political environment. The Cook Political Report, for example, counts seven races as “toss-ups,” including states like New Hampshire where models and prediction markets imply that Democrats are heavy favorites.

This cautious view is misaligned with the long history of strong opposition performance in midterm elections, especially when the incumbent president is as unpopular as Trump. And it’s becoming harder to justify by the day. There’s not much longer to go — 44 days until Nov. 3 — and both national polls and race-by-race polls have been extremely strong for Democrats since Labor Day…..

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So 2026 is a year when current and historical trends align in a surprisingly neat way. But an environment like this would produce huge gains for Democrats. As Nate Cohn writes, we’re tracking toward around an 11-point swing from 2024, when Trump and Republicans narrowly won the popular vote for both the presidency and the House. That’s an interesting number if you look at the 2024 presidential vote because it means potentially breaching the “red wall of states that wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive…..

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A Blue Wave Keeps Building