...from the Sabato Crystal Ball people.... How Biden endures History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Joe Biden doesn’t rhyme with Mitt Romney, although one of the words emblazoned on the side of Biden’s bus (malarkey) sort of does. More to the point, we are … [Read more...] about How Joe Biden keeps above the pack…The Mitt Romney 2012 scenario …
Projections /Forecasts
Democrats could make more gains in the House….
Roll Call has ratings changes.... Even if the national political environment isn’t as bad for the GOP as the midterm elections when they lost 40 seats, there’s little evidence that President Donald Trump will dramatically improve his 2016 performance in key competitive House … [Read more...] about Democrats could make more gains in the House….
A year out…Trump 2.0?
Another projection piece on next years Presidential election that points to trouble for Donald Trump's campaign for a second term... This one based on Trump's popularity a year out using Obama's numbers going into his second term.... It points to a tough climb for a Trump … [Read more...] about A year out…Trump 2.0?
Almost a year out from the 2020 General Election…Trump second term?…Open Thread for Oct. 27, 2019
I'm staying out on a limb and continue to think that Donald J. Trump has a little bit more than a year in office.... Yup.... I'm sticking to my story.... I do NOT think he's gonna lose his job with an conviction of wrong doing from the Us Senate jury.... I DO think he … [Read more...] about Almost a year out from the 2020 General Election…Trump second term?…Open Thread for Oct. 27, 2019
2020 Congressional results….Sbato’s Cyrstal Ball…Good News for Democrats?….
An early forecast from Alan I. Abramowitz over at Larry Sbabto's political blog..... In the last election, Democrats won 235 seats in the House of Representatives to 199 for the GOP with one vacancy remaining to be filled in a special, do-over election in North Carolina’s … [Read more...] about 2020 Congressional results….Sbato’s Cyrstal Ball…Good News for Democrats?….
Could polls be underestimating Democratic gains?
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight floats the idea that the YUGE fundraising that Democrats have done going into the upcoming midterms could just add up to the bigger number of gains forecasters are estimating.... The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so … [Read more...] about Could polls be underestimating Democratic gains?
Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke just Could beat Ted Cruz down in Texas….
A month out the FiveThirtyEight guy does a lot of talking about how factors OTHER than the polls could be signaling a possible upset win for Democratic Beto O'Rourke in the Texas US Senate race... So when I build election forecasts for FiveThirtyEight, I’m usually not … [Read more...] about Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke just Could beat Ted Cruz down in Texas….
More evidence of a possible Midterm Democratic ‘Wave’ Election….
Cook Political Report (Dave Wasserman) joins other pundits in forecasting a Democratic take over of the leadership of the US House next year... Cook also points out something else.... Republicans who do not have Trump's back? Are all but gone..... With 102 days to … [Read more...] about More evidence of a possible Midterm Democratic ‘Wave’ Election….