An early forecast from Alan I. Abramowitz over at Larry Sbabto's political blog..... In the last election, Democrats won 235 seats in the House of Representatives to 199 for the GOP with one vacancy remaining to be filled in a special, do-over election in North Carolina’s … [Read more...] about 2020 Congressional results….Sbato’s Cyrstal Ball…Good News for Democrats?….
Projections /Forecasts
Could polls be underestimating Democratic gains?
Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight floats the idea that the YUGE fundraising that Democrats have done going into the upcoming midterms could just add up to the bigger number of gains forecasters are estimating.... The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so … [Read more...] about Could polls be underestimating Democratic gains?
Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke just Could beat Ted Cruz down in Texas….
A month out the FiveThirtyEight guy does a lot of talking about how factors OTHER than the polls could be signaling a possible upset win for Democratic Beto O'Rourke in the Texas US Senate race... So when I build election forecasts for FiveThirtyEight, I’m usually not … [Read more...] about Nate Silver thinks Beto O’Rourke just Could beat Ted Cruz down in Texas….
More evidence of a possible Midterm Democratic ‘Wave’ Election….
Cook Political Report (Dave Wasserman) joins other pundits in forecasting a Democratic take over of the leadership of the US House next year... Cook also points out something else.... Republicans who do not have Trump's back? Are all but gone..... With 102 days to … [Read more...] about More evidence of a possible Midterm Democratic ‘Wave’ Election….
Cook Political Report…Democrats still favored to take back the House….
It's the enthusiasm gap that keeps the view that Democrats will have a majority in the US House come Jan. 1, 2019.... Moves by Trump and Republicans continue to feed that ...... The piece also repeats something I have pointed out here... Despite the media hurding about … [Read more...] about Cook Political Report…Democrats still favored to take back the House….