Roll Call’s Stuart Rothenberg thinks Chuck Schumer could be giving his Majority job in the chamber back to Mitch McConnell come January 2025….
While campaign junkies everywhere are focused on the 2022 midterm elections, I’m already thinking about the fight for the Senate in 2024.
Sure, what happens in next year’s congressional elections will impact the future, as will the next presidential contest, the state of the economy and dozens of other unknowns. If you are looking for predictions here about 2024, you are looking in the wrong place.
But we already know that while handicappers’ initial ratings for the Senate class of 2022 suggest a relatively even fight involving only a handful of states, the 2024 map strongly favors the GOP.
At least nine Democratic-held seats in competitive states will be up in 2024 — Arizona (Kyrsten Sinema), Michigan (Debbie Stabenow), Minnesota (Amy Klobuchar), Montana (Jon Tester), Nevada (Jacky Rosen), Ohio (Sherrod Brown), Pennsylvania (Bob Casey), West Virginia (Joe Manchin III) and Wisconsin (Tammy Baldwin).
In addition, the seat of Maine independent Angus King, who caucuses with the Democrats and recently turned 77, will be up.
Democrats may eventually hold some, most or all of these seats, of course. Tester, Brown, Casey and Manchin, for example, have shown the ability to attract working-class white voters and to win in a difficult environment.
But those Democrats who won competitive contests during the 2018 midterms did so with a controversial Republican in the White House. Can they hold their seats during a recession or with an unpopular Democratic president seeking (or not seeking) reelection?
Barring dramatic shifts in state partisan preferences over the next few years, Republicans will likely be defending only one or two competitive Senate seats in 2024 — in Florida (Rick Scott) and, possibly, in Texas (Ted Cruz)….