Allan Lichtman, hasn’t missed yet…..
The historian who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 – including President Donald Trump’s win in 2016 – has announced his pick for 2020: Presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
Allan Lichtman, an author and history professor at American University, revealed his prediction in an op-ed video for The New York Times published Wednesday.
Lichtman’s predictive method – which puts him squarely in the minority of analysts who were right in calling Trump’s win – largely ignores the detailed cross-tab polling analyses and swing state bean counting that are often prioritized in modern political punditry.
“The pollsters and the pundits cover elections as though they were horse races,” Lichtman said in the Times’ video. “But history tells us voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.”
Polls are “snapshots in time,” Lichtman said. “None of this in the end has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.”
Lichtman’s prediction model looks at 13 different categories, dubbed the “Keys to the White House,” that have more to do with the record of the incumbent party occupying the White House than the nominees themselves.
The keys are presented as true-false statements, framed to favor a win for the incumbent party if true. But if six or more of the statements are false, the challenger – in this case, Biden – is predicted to win the election.
Lichtman’s verdict? “The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House.”