What’s going on in California?
Long time vote count….
No Democratic blowout in a Blue State?
WTF do they have ‘Ranked Voting’?
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IA-Sen: Rep. Ashley Hinson (R) easily won her primary, as expected. Somewhat less expectedly, DSCC pick Josh Turek (D) had just as little trouble disposing of left-wing favorite Zach Wahls (D).
IA-Gov: In the upset of the night, farmer Zach Lahn (R) edged out Trump-endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra (R) 38-37, and will advance to a competitive general with Auditor Rob Sand (D).
IA-2: Ex-State Rep. Joe Mitchell (R) took 61% and will face State Rep. Lindsey James (D) for Hinson’s open R+4 seat in Northeast Iowa.
MT-1: Talk show host Aaron Flint (R) took 50% to win the nomination in this R+5 seat. Union boss and Berniecrat Sam Forstag (D) had a slight lead over 2024 MT-Gov nominee Ryan Busse (D) as of late last night.
NJ-7: Navy vet Rebecca Bennett (D) took 46% to win the right to take on (probably?) Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R), who was unopposed, in this Even PVI seat.
NJ-12: Surgeon Adam Hamawy (D), a former traveling companion of a prominent terrorist connected to the 1993 WTC bombing, took 28% to defeat a crowded field in this D+13 seat, and will presumably end Middlesex County Dems’ decades-long streak of failing to elect one of their own to Congress.
NM-Gov: Ex-U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland (D) and Rio Rancho mayor Gregg Hull (R) easily won their primaries.
SD-Gov: RUNOFF! Yup, they exist outside the South: it takes 35% to avoid one in South Dakota, and no one came particularly close last night. Businessman Toby Doeden (R) claimed one spot with 30%, and incumbent Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) appeared to edge out Rep. Dusty Johnson (R) for the second spot, 26-24.
Results from California: Of course, It looks like it’ll be Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) in November, with Becerra completing an unlikely ascent from also-ran territory to the doorstep of Sacramento. but here’s where things stand with over 3 million votes yet to be counted.
CA-Gov: It looks like it’ll be Xavier Becerra (D) and Steve Hilton (R) in November, with Becerra completing an unlikely ascent from also-ran territory to the doorstep of Sacramento. Tom Steyer (D) is 6 points back of a Top 2 spot and is trailing fairly uniformly outside of some smaller hippie enclaves. Everyone can laugh at Katie Porter (D), who may fail to crack 5%.
CA-LG: Treasurer Fiona Ma (D) looks set to continue her game of musical offices. She’s only at 20%, with Gloria Romero (R) close behind her and Josh Fryday (D) back at 14% in third.
CA-Treas: Speaking of musical offices, LG Eleni Kounalakis (D) is going to switch places with Ma, as she’s advancing to November with Jennifer Hawks (R).
CA-Ins: Republicans may get locked out here in favor of an SF/LA Dem faceoff. SF Supervisor Jane Kim (D) has 24% and State Sen. Ben Allen (D) has 20%, with Stacy Korsgaden (R) at 17%.
CA-Supt: Sonja Shaw (R) and Richard Barrera (D) will advance to November for this officially nonpartisan office.
LAX-Mayor: Incumbent Karen Bass (D) took 37% and survived to advance to November with reality star and social media sensation Spencer Pratt (R), who took 30%. At least Bass can say she outperformed the last mayors of New York and Chicago.
CA-1 (special general): Republicans will get their majority back to 219-212 soon, as State Rep. James Gallagher (R) won an outright majority under the old R+12 lines and will succeed the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R).
CA-1: Newly-minted Rep. Gallagher (R) will face State Sen. Mike McGuire (D), the architect of the mid-decade gerrymander, under the new D+7 lines in NorCal.
CA-6: Rep. Kevin Kiley (I/R) appears on track to advance to the general in this D+3 seat around Sacramento. He has 25%, with ex-State Rep. Richard Pan (D) at 22% and engineer Michael Stansfield (R) a few hundred votes behind Pan. Kiley’s gambit in leaving the GOP was to try to advance to the general with Stansfield, and it’ll be a while before we know whether that happened.
CA-7: Rep. Doris Matsui (D), who is 81, managed only 32% in her significantly redrawn D+7 Sacramento seat and will be an underdog for re-election against Sacramento councilor Mai Vang (D), who has 25%.
CA-11: State Sen. Scott Wiener (D), running in the only district in the country where he would not be the furthest-left candidate, advanced to the general with SF Supervisor Connie Chan (D), Nancy Pelosi’s anointed successor.
CA-13: Rep. Adam Gray (D) will face ex-Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (R) in this D+1 Central Valley seat, the weakest Dem-held district on the new map. Democrats have 55% of the total vote so far, and did better in November than June in each of the two elections under the old, not-so-dissimilar lines.
CA-14: State Sen. Aisha Wahab (D) is advancing to November, to face either ex-Dublin Mayor Melissa Hernandez (D) in a potentially competitive general or a Republican in a walkover. Everyone of note here is running again in two weeks in a special to complete Rep. Eric Swalwell’s (D) term under the similar old lines.
CA-21: Rep. Jim Costa (D) seems like he’ll have his 247th consecutive Jim Costa election in this D+4 seat around Fresno that’s perennially on the outskirts of the playing field, with casino executive Kyle Kirkland (R) as his foe. Democrats have 55% of the total vote now.
CA-22: Rep. David Valadao (R) has only 44% of the vote as the lone Republican on the ballot in this Even PVI Central Valley seat. Academic Randy Villegas (D) is up 30-26 on State Rep. Jasmeet Bains (D) for the right to face Valadao.
CA-27: Jason Gibbs (R) is up 44-40 on Rep. George Whitesides (R) in this D+6 seat in northern LA County, but Democrats have the remaining 16% of the vote.
CA-40: Republicans appear on track to lock out Dems and have a member-member general in this R+5 seat, one of two vote sinks in SoCal. Rep. Ken Calvert (R), who has the geographic advantage, is through to November with 36%. Rep. Young Kim (R) has 21% and will need to hold off Esther Kim-Varet (D) at 16%. Kim is being bailed out by Dems running 5 candidates.
CA-45: Republicans have 49% of the vote so far against Rep. Derek Tran (D) in this D+3 Orange County seat. That vote is pretty evenly divided between 5 candidates, with Chuong Vo (R) ahead of Chi Nguyen (R) 16-12 for second right now.
CA-47: Conversely, Republicans have only 44% of the vote in this D+6 Orange County seat, where Rep. David Min (D) will face Jenny Rae Le Roux (R).
CA-48: Finally, Republicans have 48% of the vote in this D+3 seat north of San Diego, where San Diego County supervisor Jim Desmond (R) will face San Diego city councilor Marni von Wilpert (D).
Senate
AL-Sen: Former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson (R) finished second in the primary, but leads Rep. Barry Moore (R) 49-39 in a poll of the runoff. AG Steve Marshall (R), who finished a close third, has not endorsed in the runoff.
ME-Sen: Gov. Janet Mills (D) conspicuously reminded everyone that, despite dropping out, she’s still on the ballot for next week’s Senate primary, in the event Democrats experience a last-minute urge to vote for someone with no known Nazi tattoos who is not currently involved in a humiliating sex scandal.
TX-Sen: Put the popcorn away. AG and Senate nominee Ken Paxton (R) and State Sen. Angela Paxton (R) have cancelled their divorce trial, meaning they’ve probably settled their divorce out of court as most couples do. Angela was likely able to ask for whatever she wanted, as a public divorce trial in June would have been an absolute circus for Ken’s campaign.
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