— We are making three Senate rating changes this week, all in favor of Democrats. North Carolina moves to Leans Democratic, and Alaska and Ohio are now Toss-ups.
— This makes the Democrats’ path to the majority clearer, but we still favor Republicans in the overall race for the Senate.
— Democrats need to win all four of our Toss-ups to get to a majority, while Republicans need just one to preserve a nominal 50-50 majority because they hold the vice presidential tiebreaker.
— Democrats also have their work cut out for them in the four Toss-ups, albeit for different reasons. In Maine and Michigan, there are questions about the quality of the Democratic candidates. In Alaska and Ohio, meanwhile, the questions are more about Democrats’ ability to overcome each state’s pronounced GOP lean.
— As redistricting for 2026 is likely coming to a close, 10 states drew new maps for 2026. Those states hold about 40% of all the nation’s House seats.
— Redistricting did make the overall House map more favorable to Republicans. The median district by presidential performance is now VA-1, held by Rep. Rob Wittman (R). It is about 2 points to the right of the old median district, and it voted about 3.5 points to the right of the nation in the 2024 presidential election.
— The number of the most competitive districts on paper declined from 85 to 70, although in 2026, Democrats may be able to win some districts that voted for Donald Trump by double digits in 2024—districts that in other years might not be winnable for them.
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