I said THAT here last week in the face of the media hysteria herding last week….
Donald Trump Chaos in General…..
Lousy Economy….
Gas prices…..
Food Prices….
Healthcare benefits cuts….
Immigration policy backlash
Worse polling numbers….
Generic Democratic House favor….
Here below is a another piece with my point of view below……
Republicans will gain from redistricting, but Democrats are still favored to win the House
- Republicans have improved their baseline seat expectations in the 2026 House race thanks to recent redistricting developments. This has somewhat improved their chances of retaining control of the House.
- However, House Democrats remained favored due to a very positive national environment that makes it likely that 2026 will see a notable shift to the left from the 2024 presidential race.
- Using the generic ballot, the 2024 presidential vote by district, and the 2024 House vote by district, we can see how potential swings still suggest that Democrats have an edge in the battle for control of the House.
Republicans will almost certainly gain from congressional redistricting in the 2026 midterm cycle. That’s the takeaway from the past two weeks, a period that included: the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Louisiana v. Callais, the Virginia Supreme Court’s ruling that invalidated the state’s recent redistricting vote, and a flurry of redraws (or potential redraws) in GOP-controlled states in the South.
These recent changes have left Democrats with less room for error, thereby improving the GOP’s chances of retaining the House. Yet Democrats remain favorites to flip the chamber in 2026. The electoral environment remains quite positive for Democrats, such that they should win at least a fair number of light-red seats in November. This gives Democrats an ample number of seats to target — or fight to retain — that will more likely than not prove sufficient for them to claim a small House majority.
The national environment
The potential swing still favors Democrats
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While Democrats remain favorites to take back the House in 2026, these recent developments do somewhat boost the GOP’s chances. If Republicans win an unusual number of close races, somewhat like Democrats did in the 2024 House race, they could hold onto their majority. Yet a Democratic House after 2026 is still the most likely outcome, though they could hold a very narrow majority — part of a recent pattern of closely-divided Houses.
SABATO’S CRYSTAL BALL
Redistricting Makes the House Map a Bit Redder, but Not By Enough to Protect Republicans from a Wave
By Kyle Kondik
Managing Editor, Sabato’s Crystal Ball
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— The overall national redistricting fight clearly tilted toward Republicans following their twin legal victories in the U.S. Supreme Court’s Callais case and in the Supreme Court of Virginia’s Friday decision to overturn a Democratic gerrymandering effort there on process grounds.
— Five House ratings move toward the Republicans following a sharpened GOP gerrymander in Tennessee and as Virginia reverted to its old map. Democrats do still have targets on the old Virginia map, though.
— The House map has taken on a larger GOP bias as a result of redistricting, although when it’s all said and done, the bias by one measure may essentially be the same as it was in 2018, when Democrats easily won the House.