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Open Thread for 4/8/2026….Donald Trump and The Madman Theory…..

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Politicalwire gets things Right Below….

The Madness of the Madman Theory

Janan Ganesh looks at the origins of the “madman theory” of diplomacy during the Nixon administration and notes “there are reasons to think the ploy will be even less successful now than it was then.”

“For one thing, Nixon made his threats through private channels. If he decided to back down from them, he would not lose face in front of the entire world. In contrast, Trump’s threats to erase a civilization could scarcely be more public. The pressure to make good on them at some point is correspondingly higher. It might intensify after his agreement to a conditional ceasefire with Iran on Taco Tuesday — sorry, April 7. This is why games of bluff are better played behind closed doors.”

“Another difference is that mid-20th century Vietnam was not central to the world economy. Early-21st century Iran unmistakably is.”

 

Quote of the Day

“A big day for World Peace!”

— President Trump, on Truth Social, just 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet.

 

Trump Finds Offramp But the Causes of War Unresolved

New York Times: “Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.”

“Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.”

“But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.”

 

An Incredibly Weird Time to Be Alive

Charlie Warzel: “The world witnessed the best and worst of humanity in a single week.”

 

Hegseth claims ‘historic and overwhelming victory’ after Iran ceasefire

However, the deal does not appear to include Iranian commitments on uranium enrichment or giving up its nuclear material, key aims of Iran hawks. It also leaves the hardline Iranian regime in place. The U.S. has also said it wants Iranian commitments to stop funding proxies across the region.

Despite Iran’s lack of nuclear commitments, Hegseth claimed that Tehran had agreed to remove enriched uranium buried underground as part of the temporary truce.

 

image…Sky News…

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  2. Only Losers Play the Madman

    David Frum: “The most important thing to understand about the “madman theory” of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.”

    “The world first heard of the madman theory from a 1978 memoir by President Richard Nixon’s former chief of staff H. R. Haldeman. According to Haldeman, Nixon said: ‘I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.’ Faced with an otherwise hopeless war in Vietnam, Nixon would pretend to be crazy to intimidate the North Vietnamese into allowing him some face-saving escape.”

    “Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he’s winning. Strong and successful powers emphasize consistency and predictability. So do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful.”

  4. Mediate reports that outgoing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis wants Trump to appoint him either Sec of Defense, Attory General or next vacancy on Supy Court.

    DeSantis ran a short unsuccessful capacity against Trump for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

  6. Why on earth are you running an article about GOP retirements from EIGHT YEARS AGO. This can be highly confusing (e.g. “Pelosi’s seat”). I can’t even comment on that thread since it’s so ancient.

    Presumably you ran this old historical relic as a hook for the news of Daniel Webster’s retirement.

    To which I reply: If Daniel Webster is to retire this year, what about three-time presidential candidate Henry Clay? The Whigs must be looking at a very discouraging mid-term election.

  7. Can you find one of the Seven Deadly Sins that hasn’t been indulged by That Man (now) in The White House?

    Greed
    Pride
    Envy
    Gluttony
    Anger
    Lust
    Sloth

    Which only shows that he is like us other mortals, rather than the much-celebrated Saviour of Civilisation?

  8. Donald Trump Can’t Sleep

    …..Christ. It’s four in the morning, and I can’t get back to sleep. I dunno why. I mean, that state dinner for King Charles went fine. And I still look good in white tie!

    So why can’t I get back to sleep? I’m getting like that goddamn Macbeth in that play Ivanka made me see. Macbeth was a tough guy. I liked him. But I guess it didn’t end well.

    I gotta be honest. I do know why I can’t sleep.

    For one thing, the dinner was okay, but I knew all along what the King was thinking: “Really? This is the best they can do?” A “state dinner”? The King doesn’t have state dinners. He throws state banquets. And he doesn’t live in some run-down White House with 132 rooms. He lives in Buckingham Palace. A palace. With 775 goddamn rooms.

    And I can’t even get a ballroom added to this dump.

    We tried pushing for the ballroom after that assassination attempt over the weekend. But maybe we laid it on too thick? It doesn’t seem to be convincing anyone. And some of the idiot Republicans in Congress are making it worse. They decided to try to suck up to me by saying the government should pay for it. Dunces. I’ve said over and over the ballroom wouldn’t cost the taxpayers anything!!! So now it’s gonna be, “First Trump raised your gas prices, and now he wants you to pay for his ballroom.” That’s just great!

    Nobody covers Trump like we do. Join our community and get the most of what we have to offer by becoming a Bulwark+ member.

    Congress is such a pain in the ass. I was trolling when I told the guys to post that picture this afternoon of me and Charles together, with the caption “TWO KINGS.” But goddamn it—it would be good to be a king.

    If you’re king you can ignore Congress. And you can ignore the polls. And now they tell me there’s a new poll that shows 17 percent of my voters say they regret their vote. And they say the war with Iran was the number-one reason, followed by the economy.

    Well, shit. Those are connected! Look at the goddamn gas prices. And that goddamn strait they didn’t warn me about.

    The Iran thing, that’s the real reason I can’t sleep. What the hell am I going to do?

    I gotta get out of there. They keep telling me I have to stay the course and raise the pressure and get the nuclear dust out and not let Iran have any control over the strait. But two months ago they told me it would all be easy. I don’t believe a thing they tell me anymore.

    Am I becoming Jimmy Carter? Am I becoming Jimmy Fuckin’ Peanut Farming Carter? That’s like the opposite of being a king.

    I gotta get out. But I can’t look weak. Gotta look tough. Especially if you’ve gotta back down, you gotta declare victory. Can’t look like I’m a loser or a sucker. Can’t let people listen to the goddamn German chancellor saying I’m being humiliated by the Iranians!

    But Merz was right when he said, “I hope that this ends as quickly as possible.” So do I. Maybe I can get lucky to get out of there without too much damage to my brand.

    But it’s tricky. Get out too quickly and things go to hell. Stay too long and . . . things go to hell. So I’ll keep on blustering for a while, like I did with that Truth Social post I just put up:
    ….

  9. Why the Press Is Harder on Democrats Than Republican

    This is a really hard and important question, because it gets at what has seemed so deeply unfair about the Trump era. There is undoubtedly a double standard, and the reasons why are helpful in understanding how the political media works.

    There are three reasons the press holds Democrats to a much higher standard than Trump and the Republicans.

  11. Southern Baptist preacher Robert Jeffress ,an entertainer over the Fox News/Entertainment network ,says Trump has a “ better understanding”of The Bible than Pope Leo.

    Cant you just see Trump calmly sitting in a big leather chair ,earnestly perusing the holy book ,stopping occasionally as he chews on his glasses contemplating a particularly significant sentence of scripture?

  12. I don’t support Graham Platner ,the presumptive Democratic Senate candidate in Maine.

    His explanations for that Nazi tattoo and his other outrageous statements in the past are pure BS.

    • Understood …….

      But he’s polling a good space ahead of Collins and he looks like good ole ex-Marine that can and IS snatching support from a wide spectrum of Maine’s voters ……

      Democrats will hold their noses and welcome the guy..,..

      They NEED Collins’s Senate spot Badly…

  13. “ A full blown energy disaster may be weeks away.”
    The Economist

    As Republicans continue to make America great again!

    What with a 70s repetition of gas lines and what?$8.00 a gallon gas…

    I mean how much greater can it get?

    But as that well known intellect Jim Jordan says..” That’s life”( with apologies to Frank Sinatra)

  14. With Bill Cassidy’s loss in Louisiana on orders of Trump,isn’t it time we get another one of those well thought out “ analysis “by our moderator as to how Trump does not uh “ really” dominate the Republican Party?

    Note that Cassidy’s defeat is the first time an incumbent Republican Senator has lost a Republican primary in the past ten years.

    I’m sure such an “ analysis “ will be well as well reasoned and thoughtful as his past ones.

    • OF COURSE Trump ‘owns’ DEEP RED State knuckleheads…..

      They DID vote for a guy who spoke out aginst criminal Trump’s Jan. 6 actions….

      Yup….

      But other GOPer’s in Purple to Blue places do NOT have the same constraints ….

      Check that….

      Collins gonna lose her job it would seem in the general….
      Trump & Co. not really supporting her is gonna hurt THEM…

        • Ron G’s former boss gives up on GOPer’s….

          Larry Hogan Has Given Up on Republicans

          Washington Post: “At the height of his political influence, Maryland‘s former Republican governor Larry Hogan was courted as a presidential candidate to offer an antidote to Donald Trump’s takeover of the GOP. But the brand that made him a popular blue state governor never made a splash outside the ‘Never Trump’ world…”

          “Instead, in what he calls his ‘Zen’ era, Hogan is announcing Sunday the launch of the nonpartisan Hogan Institute at a small liberal arts college. Vowing to never run for office again, Hogan is instead focused on teaching leadership skills to Washington College undergraduates.”

  15. Trump has endorsed Paxton in the Texas US Senate GOP Primary….

    Polling NOW has both Cornyn and Paxton closing on Telarico…….

    No surprise.,,.

    We ARE talking about Texas

  16. Cassidy gone

    Now Massie

    Is Cornyn next?

    As Trumps revenge tour proceeds…

    For the “ mysterious 200” here?

    James?Tell them for the umpteenth time that Trump “really” doesn’t dominate the Republican Party.

  18. The SC Senate has still not been able to concur with the House in redisricting Congressional districts to essentially eliminate Jim Clyburns district.

    • Goes BACK to the power of Clyburn and Black folks in your state….

      We’ll see….

      Sabato and Cook think that the media hysteria is a bit over the top and that Democrats WILL STILL get a 2027 US House Majority….

      But not as big ….

      • Actually,it has nothing to do with that.

        It has to do with some technicalities as to the special session ,the opposition of Republican majority leader ShaneMassey to the whole idea and the opposition of Republican Senators in the Charleston area to being placed in a district with Myrtle Beach.

        If you think the Republicans in SC give a damn about what Black people think about all this,you’re sadly mistaken.

        Note the Democrats havent won a statewide election in South Carolina in the past twenty years.

  19. The SC Senate today voted to end the Republican effort to redistrict Congressional lines that would have likely ousted longtime Black Congressman Jim Clyburn.

    Citing the fact that 26000 had already participated in early voting,14 Republican Senators joined all the Democratic Senators in voting to end the redistricting effort urged on it by Trump.

    This means that the 85 year old Clyburn is probably safe this year.

    Look for another effort to redraw next year.

    • I told ya so…..

      I’m GLAD ON THIS……

      Looks like two or three other Red state seats will STAY in Dem’s hands for 2026……

      Good

      But Dem’s have to also be looking at 2028 Electoral College numbers

      I’ll be posting later
      Busy day….

      • Haha!

        You were totally unaware of what was going on in SC until I informed you after you had confidently predicted Clyburns reelection.

        Essentially the Republicans waited too long .

        If they had started the process a few days earlier? Clyburn would have been toast

        They won’t make that mistake again.

        • Excuse Me?

          I advanced that the GOPer’s there WHERE going to allow the ONLY Black US House in your state to KEEP his seat…..

          If I remember correctly you casted doubt on my view which was from media sources

          Lo and Behold MY and others view have come TRUE!

          Don’t try to weasel on me on this one…..

          I got it right so far…..

            • More insanity.

              There was no effort to “ carry Clyburn.”

              What happened was that early voting had already started using the current districts.Republican lawyers were telling Republican legislators that they would be inviting a legal challenge if they redrew districts after 26000 early voters had voted with the present districts.Further Charleston Senators were upset about the way the new lines were drawn and wanted more discussion but time had essentially run out.

              There was no discussion about “ saving Clyburn. “Indeed the whole idea is absurd.Yeah sure a bunch of southern Trump Republicans want to save Jim.Good God what stupidity!

              Your total and complete ignorance of South Carolina politics is noted ,as is your silly ass notion that SC Republicans wanted to “ save Clyburn!”

              Like so much else here…Dumb, plain ole DUMB.

  20. Oh and

    Why would I ,or anyone else who has ever posted here ,try to uh “ weasel “ on you?

    You have never won an argument here because fundamentally you have very little knowledge of politics in general and totally lack basic reading comprehension skill.

    Further, you increasingly exhibit signs of irrationality as illustrated by your comment a few days ago that you usually “ agreed’ with CG!This,afteryou had commented how you “ missed” your back and forth disagreeing with him.

    Finally ,there’s this patently crazy idea of yours that hundreds of people are taking time out of their day to read your often incoherent comments of the news of the day,Sad,really.

    Really James it’s over.

    There’s no one here but me,you and DSD..

    At some point,it’s time to give up the ghost.

    Your time is now.

    As I fade off into the sunset…..

    • Morning….

      This site IS seen by 213 on Twitter , 244 on Bluesky daily and 54.7 K on WordPress the last 30 days….

      Sure the WordPress number HAS tons of BOT’s ….

      But the exposure IS OVER a Thousand daily….

      There IS Enough people checking this place that I’ll keep truckin here….

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