Politicalwire gets things Right Below….
Janan Ganesh looks at the origins of the “madman theory” of diplomacy during the Nixon administration and notes “there are reasons to think the ploy will be even less successful now than it was then.”
“For one thing, Nixon made his threats through private channels. If he decided to back down from them, he would not lose face in front of the entire world. In contrast, Trump’s threats to erase a civilization could scarcely be more public. The pressure to make good on them at some point is correspondingly higher. It might intensify after his agreement to a conditional ceasefire with Iran on Taco Tuesday — sorry, April 7. This is why games of bluff are better played behind closed doors.”
“Another difference is that mid-20th century Vietnam was not central to the world economy. Early-21st century Iran unmistakably is.”
“A big day for World Peace!”
— President Trump, on Truth Social, just 16 hours after threatening to erase an entire civilization off the face of the planet.
New York Times: “Mr. Trump’s tactic of escalating his rhetoric to astronomical levels certainly helped him find an offramp he had been seeking for weeks. That success alone may fuel his belief that the tactics he learned in the New York real estate world — ignore old conventions, make maximalist demands — works in geopolitics as well.”
“Without question, it was a down-to-the-wire tactical victory, one that should, at least temporarily, get oil, fertilizer and helium flowing again through the Strait of Hormuz, and calm markets that feared a global energy shock would lead to a global recession.”
“But it resolved none of the fundamental issues that led to the war.”
Charlie Warzel: “The world witnessed the best and worst of humanity in a single week.”
Hegseth claims ‘historic and overwhelming victory’ after Iran ceasefire
However, the deal does not appear to include Iranian commitments on uranium enrichment or giving up its nuclear material, key aims of Iran hawks. It also leaves the hardline Iranian regime in place. The U.S. has also said it wants Iranian commitments to stop funding proxies across the region.
Despite Iran’s lack of nuclear commitments, Hegseth claimed that Tehran had agreed to remove enriched uranium buried underground as part of the temporary truce.
image…Sky News…
New Open Thread is HERE.…
Morning folks
Morning Folks
Morning…..
Morning…..
Breaking….
Swalwell drops out of the California Governor’s race….
This should allow the 3rd place Democrat to move AHEAD of the Republican leading in the voting..,,,
The ranked voting thing maneuver should keep the Governor job in the Dem’s hands the next 4 years
Morning,…….,
The World IS getting to watch an American President Fuck Up in Real Time……
Electing a crook is NEVER a Good thing….
Morning
Trump keeping things Crazy
Morning All….
More RFK Jr. Crazy stuff
RFK Jr. Once Cut Off Dead Raccoon’s Penis
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an avid animal genitalia researcher in his spare time, once pulled the family sedan to the side of the road after spying a dead raccoon and swiftly cut off its sex organs so he could ‘study them later,’” the New York Post reports.
Morning
Analilia Mejia Wins Special Election in New Jersey
Analilia Mejia (D) has won a special election for New Jersey’s 11th congressional district, the New Jersey Globe projects, keeping Gov. Mikie Sherrill’s (D) old seat under Democratic control and handing a huge win to the insurgent progressive movement that powered Mejia’s campaign.
Yo Guys?
WAIT til 2029!
Supreme Court Justices Alito, Thomas not expected to retire this year: Sources….
Republican Nerves Are Fraying Ahead of Midterms
“Republican officials are sounding the alarm and urging significant changes ahead of November’s midterm elections, worried that the war in Iran and Democratic enthusiasm could lead to a blowout,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In some places, they fear it might already be too late.”
Morning All…..
Only Losers Play the Madman
David Frum: “The most important thing to understand about the “madman theory” of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.”
“The world first heard of the madman theory from a 1978 memoir by President Richard Nixon’s former chief of staff H. R. Haldeman. According to Haldeman, Nixon said: ‘I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.’ Faced with an otherwise hopeless war in Vietnam, Nixon would pretend to be crazy to intimidate the North Vietnamese into allowing him some face-saving escape.”
“Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he’s winning. Strong and successful powers emphasize consistency and predictability. So do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful.”
The Biggest Mistake by a President
Tucker Carlson told the BBC that President Trump’s Iran war “the single biggest mistake” by an American president in his lifetime.