The below AP piece points to a possible loss of support for Republicans from Texas Hispanic voters dealing with Trump 2.0 , and his issues (Including Immigration and the Economy), that could nullify Republican effort to increase their voting strength in the state redistricting efforts….
The new map is supposed to help Republicans pick up five Democratic-held seats, a target set by Trump. If they succeed, Democrats will represent only eight of the state’s 38 districts, down from their current 13.
Republicans pursued this goal with a tactic called “cracking,” which means spreading Democratic-leaning voters across districts that include more Republican-leaning voters. This way, it’s harder for Democrats to patch together a majority in individual congressional races.
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The question will be whether voters Trump picked up in 2024 will stick with his party in the midterms. While the country as a whole shifted to the right in 2024 compared with 2020, some demographic groups moved more sharply than others. Hispanic voters in particular — who are heavily represented along the border and in several Texas cities — supported Trump at higher rates than they had four years earlier.
There are warning signs for this plan, particularly in heavily Hispanic areas: Even as Trump made double-digit improvements in his margins along the southern border, those voters also returned Democratic incumbent Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez to Congress. Both are running again in reconstituted districts.
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