Iran…Trump….Evening…3/8/2026…A Cease-Fire with Holes in It…..

Even as U.S. and Iranian officials issued dueling threats to resume attacks if the cease-fire fell apart, both countries had reason to hope it held together. The announcement of the two-week truce had an immediate positive effect on oil and financial markets, which meant a resumption of hostilities could be politically unpalatablefor Mr. Trump. And Iran’s economy was already in shambles before recent attacks on its infrastructure that only made things worse.

The Trump administration seemed determined to plow ahead with a diplomatic process it was already framing as a success, a day after Mr. Trump threatened to wipe out Iranian civilization. Vice President JD Vance plans to travel to Pakistan for peace talks beginning Saturday morning, Ms. Leavitt said. Steve Witkoff, the president’s special envoy, and Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law, will accompany him.

The status of the Strait of Hormuz, which Mr. Trump had demanded be reopened as a condition of the cease-fire, was unclear. Iranian state media said that the strait, a narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes, had been “fully closed,” while the state broadcaster told ships to coordinate passage with the Iranian navy to avoid anti-ship mines. Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm, said no oil tankers had crossed the strait since the cease-fire began.

Further highlighting the fragility of the truce, Persian Gulf countries reported dozens of Iranian missile and drone attacks earlier on Wednesday. And Iran’s state media reported that an oil refinery on Lavan, an Iranian island in the Persian Gulf, was struck by unspecified “enemies.”

Here’s what else we’re covering:

• Lebanon: Israel’s strikes against Hezbollah, which has mounted rocket attacks on Israel in solidarity with Iran, prompted Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to threaten a military response against “aggressors in the region” if the attacks didn’t end immediately. Lebanon’s health ministry said that at least 182 people had been killed and more than 800 wounded in the latest strikes on Beirut, the Lebanese capital, and other parts of the country.

• Markets: Oil prices plummeted and stocks surged on Wednesday as investors cheered a last-minute cease-fire agreement between Iran and the United States, and largely shrugged off Iran’s claims that the deal had already been violated on Wednesday. The price of Brent crude ended the day 13.3 percent lower, at $94.75 per barrel. The price remained about 30 percent higher than it was before the war. The S&P 500 rose 2.5 percent. Read more ›

• What’s next: Iran publicly released what it said was the 10-point framework for talks that Mr. Trump described as “a workable basis on which to negotiate” an end to the war. A White House official said the points did not match what Mr. Trump was referring to. Ms. Leavitt insisted that what Iranian officials were saying publicly did not match with their private communications with the United States. Read more ›

• Nuclear demand: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth called on Iran to turn over its stockpile of 970 pounds of highly enriched uranium, saying that Mr. Trump could still order U.S. commandos to seize the material. Read more ›

• Death tolls: The Human Rights Activists News Agency said at least 1,701 civilians, including 254 children, had been killed in Iran as of Wednesday. Lebanon’s health ministry on Monday said that more than 1,500 people had been killed in the latest fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. In attacks blamed on Iran, at least 32 people have been killed in Gulf nations. In Israel, at least 20 people had been killed as of Monday. The American death toll stands at 13 service members.

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AP….

• Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Wednesday that a ceasefire and negotiations with the U.S. on ending the war is “unreasonable” as he accused the U.S. of violating three of Tehran’s 10 conditions for an end to the fighting. It comes as the not yet day-old ceasefire appears at risk of fraying over significant disagreements between the parties.
• The United States and Iran both claimed victory Wednesday after the two countries and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire to halt more than a month of war, even as more drones and missiles hit the Islamic Republic and Gulf Arab states.
• Israel has pushed forward its war against the Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, striking dense commercial and residential areas of Beirut without warning. Lebanon said at least 182 people were killed and hundreds were wounded, making it the deadliest day in the latest Israel-Hezbollah war. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said early Wednesday that the ceasefire deal doesn’t cover fighting against Hezbollah, contradicting what Pakistan, the deal’s broker, and other nations had said. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz in response to Israeli attacks on Lebanon, and the U.S. demanded that Iran immediately reopen it.
• All sides have presented vastly different versions of the terms. In one instance, Iran said the deal would allow it to formalize its new practice of charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which the White House said U.S. President Donald Trump opposes.
• Pakistan said talks to seek a permanent end to the war could begin in Islamabad as soon as Friday. The White House confirmed that U.S. Vice President JD Vance will lead the U.S. negotiating team.

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ISW…Iran Update Special Report, April 8, 2026