These pundits have bounced around but crawl back to a Harris/Walz win in the end. by a hair…Nate Cohn Ducks…
Nate Silver….
At exactly midnight on Tuesday, I pressed the “go” button for the final time on our election model this year. I knew it was going to be close. I felt like I was spinning a roulette wheel. (Appropriate, I guess, in a year when I published a book about gambling.) We’d decided ahead of time to run 80,000 simulations instead of our usual 40K.
And after 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in … 40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent…..
(Silver cover’s his ass)
…
Harry Enten….
(Enten also covers his ass)
@ForecasterEnten
Well it’s official: the final polls of 2024 project out an electoral map that is the closest since at least 1972 with the leader (Harris) getting 270 electoral votes.
…
Nate Cohn….
(He dances…Covering His ass…With NO actual call)
Here are four scenarios for what could happen in this election. They’re all plausible — so plausible that each might seem obvious in hindsight….
Update….
538…..
Harris wins 50 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 49 times out of 100….
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