After their poll yesterday that joined others in showing President Biden and Donald Trump running neck and neck with Biden slightly ahead….
CNN went into overdrive about how Biden is in trouble….
Ask nost people if they think Trump could win NEXT YEAR in the election?
Most will shake their head and say NO….
Nate Silver does a piece on the fact that NOW ain’t next November….
Labor Day weekend traditionally marks the beginning of the end of election season, the turn to the final stretch where the news cycle becomes subsumed by the campaign. Every detail of every poll is scrutinized, and every news event is dissected, based on whether it might swing a few thousand votes in Georgia, Wisconsin or Arizona. It’s also the point beyond which, if you’re a professional covering the campaign, it becomes hopeless to inject any nuance or uncertainty into the discussion. Most people just want the anxiety to be over and to hear exactly one thing — that their guy is going to win.
In line with the usual pattern, something about the mood surrounding the 2024 campaign has shifted over the past week. For instance, a series of seemingly low-stakes debates about polling became fervent arguments on The Platform Formerly Known As Twitter, from “CNN poll” becoming a trending topic to an engagement-farming account causing a ruckus by pointing out that a Republican polling firm was doing polling for Republican clients (the complaint is every bit as stupid as it sounds….
…
It’s not hard, for instance, to find polls from this point in 2015 showing Hillary Clinton with double-digit leads over Trump.
There are exactly four things you need to know about the horse race right now:
- Joe Biden could win.
- Donald Trump could win.
- Someone other than Biden or Trump could win.
- The odds of these scenarios do not shift very much from day to day.
I’d argue that 1 (Biden winning) is more likely than 2 (Trump winning) which, in turn, is more likely than 3 (someone else winning). But unless you’re making trades of some kind, there probably isn’t a lot to be gained from further precision than that right now…..
I’d love to see an actual sprint between Biden and Trump. Biden would probably win a foot race handily, and then start talking about that “time” Lance Armstrong cheated him out of the Tour de France.
Can U see Trump bent over trying to catch his breath and agents calling for a ambulance ?
Now that you’ve mentioned it, yes. I also doubt he’d ever accept a foot race challenge for that very reason.
Good point.Maybe you can remember that before you breathlessly report that Biden is 1 point up or Trump is 3/10 of a point down.
These polls are totally meaningless.
In fact, believe it or not,the vast number of people in this country arent even paying much attention to the presidential race presently.
That used be Republican and Dixiecrat strategy to hold down voter turnout by reinforcing indifference, cynicism and apathy:
* It’ll never make a difference, anyway
* Ain’t a dime’s worth of difference…
* The system is rigged, so the big guys always win; your vote isn’t going to count anyway
* Everyone in Washington, the Statehouse, City Hall and the County Courthouse is corrupt anyway; so why bother?
* The only time they even pretend to listen to the little guy is when they want his vote
* Don’t you have better or more enjoyable things to do: let’s have another round (of beer, golf or tennis)
This is less effective for the GOP these days, because it has now become so dependent on the enthusiasm of the MAGA diehards. And they know that there will be a lot of effective and even enthusiastic support on the other side for the Democrats from the unions, the Left, pro-choice women. and mainstream minority advocates.
In fact I did a post a a little while ago that pointed out that voting access has actually INCREASED…..
Added to that is the realization among some GOP’s that the abortion issue IS bringing out voters that might have skipped voting, thus forcing them to look for more of their voters even if they want to vote early or by mail…..
THAT is DIRECTLY opposite their main man Trump’s wishes, eh?
The’ Ragin Cajun’ chimes in on Biden current poll numbers status…
Democrats should be concerned with President Biden’s poll numbers, some of which show him trailing various GOP candidates in head-to-head matchups, Democratic strategist James Carville said Thursday.
Polls also have consistently shown many voters are concerned about Biden’s age and whether he is fit to be president. Biden is 80, will turn 81 in November and would be 86 at the end of a second term.
“You can’t look at this and not say that you’re concerned,” Carville said in an interview on CNN. “For me to come on television and say I don’t find this alarming or troubling at all would be stupid. I wouldn’t do that.”….
More…
Cept the reporting on the polls for Biden has pushed Biden & Co. To FINALLY come out and start doing campaign ads!
Personality wins the day in Presidential races…it’s why trump has such a enthusiastic base he nows how to use his personality to get support…Honestly, I liked Biden, but listening to him talk now is painful…he is old and he is showing it…Trump is still the Orange Maniac he was 6 years ago…I don’t know how he has all that energy…Maybe Amphetamines, I don’t know…
It will be Biden’s record of achievement versus Trump’s shoddy one plus his indictments and perhaps convictions by the time the election rolls around. By that point, Biden could be on the debate stage talking about that time he shot General Custer at Little Bighorn, and he can’t lose.
Seriously SE?
Sit down and compare what Biden has done in 2 1/2 years compared to Trump….
Actually?
Compared to Obama….
He may look rusty and old….
But?
He’s actually got shit DONE..…
And he DOESN’Y the place upside down to boot!
He has a great record, certainly better than Trump’s even pre-Pandemic. That was my starting point. Admittedly I had to make some humor of Biden just as I will with Trump.
Infrastructure, the CHIPS Act, and relieving Student Loan Debts make any President of my lifetime look sub par by comparison(not that they weren’t already pretty damn sub par).
He’s also canceled the ANWR drilling deal and, from things I’ve seen, may be looking at suing Big Oil. Which is a huge plus for me, as Climate Change is the issue of our time.
In my estimation, he’s the first good and true Liberal President we’ve had since Jimmy Carter and his putting solar panels atop the White House.
I’ll yake Biden OVER Trump anytime….ANYDAY….
Unlike others….
I CANNOT FORGET the shit Trump us thru….