Less than 3 months out?
Joe Biden by more that 2-1…..
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Our forecast is up!!! It gives Joe Biden a 71% chance of winning and Donald Trump a 29% chance.
2020 Election Forecast
Latest forecast of the 2020 presidential election between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
…
@kkondik
New
model based on presidential approval gives almost the exact same probabilities to Trump as the new 538 model does – about 30% chance to win at this point, and a little under 10% if current polling holds until the election centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar
Trump is back Tweeting about “suburban housewives” again and how he is going to save them from poor people led by Cory Booker.
I gotta think he was told that polling showed him in trouble with women who live in suburban areas and all he could think of was some white stay at home mom out of Mad Men.
He is going to protect Mrs. Cleaver from Eldridge Cleaver.
The early Eldridge Cleaver.
In his later years, Cleaver became a conservative Republican.
Then again, since Trump is often feuding with various Republicans , maybe he wants to save the housewives from some of them too!
In Leave it To Beaver the June Cleaver character hailed from East St. Louis, IL. A suburb—though clearly not one whose housewives Trump is aiming his reelection pitch to.
East St Louis, having always had its own industry, etc, would always have been considered a “city.”
But Barbara Billingsley did seem comfortable with “jive” on Airplane.
Trump is from Queens NY….
Was born in Jamaica Hospital about 4 miles from JFK Airport which was called Idelwild Airport back then…
Actually a little bit from where the Cuomo bro’s hung out…
Nate Sukver
Note that **if** he holds his current lead, Biden’s win probability will begin to increase in our forecast with the passage of time. But that will be a very gradual effect at first and then might get more noticeable as of say mid-late September.