Nancy Pelosi looks good for another 2 years at least as House Speaker if she wants the job…
— The Democratic lead in House generic ballot polling has been very consistent over the course of Donald Trump’s presidency.
— Democrats also have a significant money edge in the lion’s share of their most vulnerable districts. Money is not everything, but it can help.
— We have seven House rating changes, four in favor of Republicans and three in favor of Democrats.
— Put it all together, and Democrats remain favored to hold their House majority.
Table 1: House rating changes
|Member/District||Old Rating||New Rating|
|Angie Craig (D, MN-2)||Leans Democratic||Likely Democratic|
|Dan Bishop (R, NC-9)||Likely Republican||Safe Republican|
|Don Bacon (R, NE-2)||Toss-up||Leans Republican|
|Andy Kim (D, NJ-3)||Toss-up||Leans Democratic|
|Brian Fitzpatrick (R, PA-1)||Leans Republican||Likely Republican|
|John Carter (R, TX-31)||Leans Republican||Likely Republican|
|Ron Kind (D, WI-3)||Likely Democratic||Safe Democratic|
The very stable generic ballot
President Trump’s approval rating is not the only big-picture national indicator that has not changed much over the course of his presidency.
The national House generic ballot has also been very consistent for the three-plus years he’s been in the White House.
Democrats have led almost every single one of the nearly 400 House generic ballot national polls released since Trump took office, as compiled in the 2018 and 2020 RealClearPolitics averages.
The lion’s share of these polls, about 310, were released during the 2018 cycle, while close to 90 have come out in this cycle. Because the House is less of a focus in this year’s presidential election cycle, it’s natural that the generic ballot question is being asked less.
The wording from different pollsters varies, but the generic ballot question usually asks whether a respondent plans to vote for a Democrat or a Republican in their local House of Representatives election.
Out of 309 polls included in the 2018 database, 305 showed Democratic leads; three were tied and another showed a Republican lead of one point. Out of 88 polls this cycle, 87 have shown a Democratic lead, and one has shown a tie. The current RealClearPolitics average shows a Democratic lead of 7.4 points, almost exactly the same as its final average in 2018.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s averages in both 2018 and 2020, the Democratic lead has been in the mid-to-high single digits for almost all of the last three years (the site’s 2018 average dates back to April 2017). You can see the immense stability at the links….