Why?
Simply because Texas polling tends to be off by as much as 8% points on average ….
The August polling averages were off by between 5 points and 14 points in any given year. On average since 1990, they were off by about 8 points.
Of course, that error could cut either way — it doesn’t necessarily favor Cruz. The senator leads by 3 points, on average, in polls taken this month. If this year’s polls are off by that average amount — about 8 points — then we really shouldn’t be surprised by anything from Cruz winning by 11 points to O’Rourke winning by 5. And even that understates how wide the range of possible outcomes still is — that’s just what could happen if the polls are off by the average amount. Who’s to say polls won’t be off by 14 points like they were in 1990 and 1994?
None of this is to say O’Rourke has no chance. Expert ratings, such as those provided by the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, have a track record of accuracy in forecasting elections, and all three have pinned the race as either “lean Republican” or “likely Republican,” meaning Cruz is favored but they believe O’Rourke has a shot to at least make the race competitive. Moreover, O’Rourke, a three-term congressman, has pulled far ahead of Cruz in the fundraising race. According to the Texas Tribune’s analysis of Federal Election Commission data, Cruz raised $15.6 million from the start of 2017 through July; O’Rourke pulled in a whopping $23.6 million. That sum makes O’Rourke’s campaign the third-biggest fundraiser among all Senate candidates this election cycle, according to Open Secrets, a nonpartisan research group that traces money in politics….
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Still, not a single poll so far has shown O’Rourke ahead of Cruz. So don’t make any serious bets just yet — it’s still too early to get carried away with speculating about big changes in Texas based on August polling alone….
Also,it should be noted that in these polls showing a close race ,as much as 25% is listed as “undecided.”
In most cases , that figure represents those disgruntled with the incumbent which ,on the face of it would seem to be bad news for Cruz.
Cruz has never been that popular in Texas anyway however.Texas remains, despite a lot of speculative discussion, a very red state, so that “undecided” figure more likely simply reflects his lackluster standing among many otherwise Republican voters, not budding support for ORourke.
Cruz remains a 7%-12% favorite in my view.
A new CBS Dallas-Forth Worth/Dixie Strategies poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) holds a slim lead over Beto O’Rourke (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 42%.
The differential of four points was within the margin of error of 4.3 points, meaning that the two candidates are statistically tied according to this poll….
Politicalwire…
A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Beto O’Rourke (D) by nine points among likely voters, 54% to 45%. politicalwire.com/2018/09/18/cru…
Taegan Godard
Politicalwire
Twitter
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Beto’s chances down to about 1 in 4 (26%) after that Quinnipiac poll. Were closer to 1 in 3 (33%) before.
twitter….
These numbers are NO surprise ….
Beto winning ?
THAT WOULD BE a surprise….