Nate Silver’s crew have an interactive listing House and Senate lawmakers of both parties percentages voting for and against what Donald Trump wants…..
There ARE some surprises….
Some Democratic Senators actually vote MORE with Trump than Republicans….
Looking over at the House?
There are a LOT of Democrats that vote for Trump more than Democrats…..
You have to study this table rather carefully; study especially the column headers.
What it’s comparing is how heavily the district voted for Clinton vs Trump and how often the Member votes with Trump.
They’re not quite apples and oranges, but the connection is a rather delicate one and can be very misleading at first blush.
Some of the highest names on the list don’t in fact vote that heavily with Trump; in fact they vote two-thirds or three-quarters of the time against him, which would be relatively high (and loyal to the Democratic caucus). It’s just that in November 2016 their districts voted even more heavily for Hillary Clinton and against Donald Trump.
In fact, it’s just not that realistic — given the basically red or dark-cherry states that some of these Congresspeople represent — to expect them to vote like Northeastern or Pacific Coast progressives; it’s just that their conservative legislatures have tried to pack as many Democrats (and as few Republicans) into their Congressional Districts.
Should they have any statewide ambitions, it would be unwise and irrational (some would say crazy) for them to vote with Nancy Pelosi all the time when the rest of their states are diametrically opposed to her policies.
Look, for example, at Gerald Connolly in Virginia’s 11th, who voted with Trump only 26.4% of the time, or Marc Veasey in Texas’s 33rd, who voted with the President’s wishes only 22.4% of the time. You’d ordinarily consider those pretty solid-blue records staying rather close to the Democratic caucus line. However Connolly’s Va district gave Clinton a 40% margin over Trump, and Veasey’s one in Texas gave her a 50% margin.
Gregory Meeks in New York City (NY 11th) also voted only 22.4% of the time with Trump, but that’s being compared to a whopping 73% margin for Clinton in 2016. (Not surprising since I know that Rep. Meeks is black, and I suspect his district has a very low proportion of non-Hispanic whites.)
So, while instructive, this table should be studied with a great deal of care.
Meeks is my congressman….
And you are correct in that most of his district is in the New York City boro of Queens and is predominately black….
I live across the border in Nassau where the breakdown IS more mixed….The Nassau part is very small….
He won his recent primary by 83%…..
Silver admits that his analysis is rough but does point to a correlation between state voting and Congressional ‘leans’…..
But the numbers ARE factual…..
The graphic IS surprising for some members on straight face value, eh?