Adams has a few things working against her …..
She is a Democrat running for a state wide office in Georgia
She is a woman running for a state wide office in Georgia
She is a Black, Democratic Women doing all the above….
FiveThirtyEight looks at the almost impossible situation…
Can Stacey Abrams, the Democratic nominee for governor in Georgia, win in November?
After the former Georgia House minority leader’s primary win on Tuesday, Democrats nationally are excited about the prospect of her becoming the first black woman elected governor in U.S. history. But Georgia is still a red state, and Republicans control all of the major statewide offices, like in much of the South. Abrams is going to be the underdog, but just how much of an underdog?
Wait a second, you might be thinking, Hillary Clinton lost Georgia by only 5 percentage points in 2016. And Georgia has been getting bluer. Is Abrams’s climb really that steep? Yes, it is. Georgia is one of the most “inelastic” states in the nation — its electorate is composed mostly of solid Democrats and solid Republicans, with very few persuadable voters. The result is that Democrats have a tendency to get close in the Peach State, but they have a very hard time getting over the hump to 50 percent plus one. That matters because, according to Georgia law, candidates can’t win an election with only a plurality–they must get over 50 percent of the vote…..
image…Stacey Abrams before Gov. Nathan Deal delivers his 2016 State of the State address on the House floor in Atlanta….David Goldman/AP