The ‘wave’ seems to be forming bigger and BIGGER as a result of the Illinois primaries…..
The Illinois primaries are in the books, setting the stage for an important set of congressional elections in November.
Assuming Democrat Conor Lamb is certified as the winner of the special election in Pennsylvania’s 18th District, Democrats still need a net gain of 23 seats to win the House majority. That’s a big enough gap that Democrats, instead of cherry-picking victories around the country, need to pick up a handful of seats in a few places. Illinois might be one of those states.
At this point, it feels like Democrats expect to gain at least two seats based on their confidence in a suburban surge in the 6th District and the strength of their nominee in the 12th District. A great night for Democrats would include victories in the 13th and 14th districts as well.
All four GOP-held seats could become even more vulnerable if the national political environment turns further away from Republicans, and if GOP Gov. Bruce Rauner’s re-election chances tank at the top of the ballot…..
via twitter….
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Replying to @Nate_Cohn @Redistrict and 7 others
Also, turnout in Congressional specials is **much** higher than in state legislative specials but Democratic overperformance is just as high.
Not much changed in Illinois, in regards to the U.S. House races.
In the Brad Schneider, Dem held district, Republicans nominated a candidate who is too conservative to be competitive, but they were unlikely to win that anyway.
The biggest development was that the DCCC backed female candidate they wanted to run against Peter Roskam lost (even though she was incorrectly declared the winner by the AP earlier in the night), and that the nominee in IL 6 now is going to have a tougher time against Roskam.
It is very possible that no U.S. House seats in IL switch parties.
Who is running again st Bost?
Darn!
I wish Brandon was around to give some view on this….
Looks like it is Brendan Kelley–State’s Attorney for St. Clair County. It’s the largest county in the district. Kelley should be a good bet to beat Bost.
Brendan Kelly, a State’s Attorney who is highly touted by the party.
It’s still a pretty conservative district though. If it is a complete national wave, the Democrat will probably win.
Ah, the smell of denial in the morning.
Brendan Kelly is a candidate, very much like Conor Lamb, that fits his district perfectly. He got almost 9,000 more votes than Bost did Tuesday and will be very well funded going into the general.
As I pointed out on another thread, the Democrats almost doubled Republican turnout on Tuesday in Illinois (evidence of a huge enthusiasm gap for November), and the GOP will have a “dead man walking” at the head of their ticket who will be matched dollar for dollar in campaign spending. The Democrats are putting huge resources into Southern Illinois and will focus on the Kelly District.
I expect the Democrats to sweep the statewide offices and that will impact the down ballot races.
Finally, a party too weak to find a candidate to oppose an open Nazi sympathizer for Congress is too weak to resist the wave that is coming in November. I would expect the Democrats to pick up two House seats in Illinois.
Yes Keith you are right Kelley fits the district well. Bost won the seat in 2014 and held it by winning only 54% against a weak opponent in 2016.
St. Clair County–Kelley’s home–has over 270,000 residents–roughly 40% of the district population.
If Kelley wins big on hos home turf there simply won’t be enough rural votes in the district to save Bost.