Stu Rothenberg adds to the chorus of pundits that are predicting a Democratic ‘wave’ election for the November Midterms….
He builds his case on a new March 10-14 NBC News/WSJ poll…….
Trump drew about 46 percent of the vote in 2016, so the current numbers suggest a modest, but significant, erosion in support.
Exactly where the slippage has taken place isn’t clear, though it is certainly less severe in rural America and more significant in the suburbs.
That means some states, and some congressional districts, have been affected more than others.
The new March 10-14 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of adults is consistent with other surveys over the past six months. It shows Democrats with a large generic ballot advantage among younger voters, women, whites with at least a college degree and voters age 65 and older.
The GOP’s great strength in the generic ballot is among two pro-Trump groups, men and whites without a college degree. Unfortunately for the party, the survey also shows Democrats, whites with a college degree and older voters as having the greatest interest in the election (and therefore the greatest likelihood of voting). Each of those groups prefers a Democratic Congress.
Moreover, while independents don’t traditionally turn out in big numbers in midterms, one veteran Republican strategist sees them as a huge problem this year. “They are tired of the drama,” he said.
The worst case for the GOP, of course, would be mediocre Republican turnout combined with strong Democratic participation and independents behaving like Democrats (which is what they did in 2006).
If that happens, Republicans would take quite a beating in the fall….