Things remain the same…..
ISW….Iran Update Special Report, July 12, 2026
- Iran is refusing any arrangement that undermines Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz and is using force to maintain its control. Iran views control over the Strait of Hormuz as a major strategic objective, and its leaders believe that if Iran ends the war without control of the strait, it would be a serious strategic defeat.
- Recent US strikes have attempted to degrade Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping, but it remains unclear when Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping will be degraded sufficiently to prevent individual attacks that disrupt shipping.
- Iran is likely attacking Persian Gulf littoral states to deter them from supporting US- or Gulf-led efforts to limit Iranian control over the strait. Iran fired missiles and drones at US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Qatar, and Oman on July 12 in retaliation for the US strikes in Iran on July 11.
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