Iran…Trump…Conflict/War…Evening… June 13, 2026…Trump Deal Soon?

Neither the United States nor Iran has shared text of the initial deal being considered. But U.S. and Iranian officials have said that under a “memorandum of understanding,” Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the United States would lift its blockade on Iranian ports and the current cease-fire would be extended for 60 days.

During that period, both sides would commit to holding detailed negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, where differences persist and neither side has shown much willingness to compromise, and over the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran.

Iran earlier on Saturday sought to temper expectations. Esmail Baghaei, a foreign ministry spokesman, said a deal would not be signed on Sunday, though he left open the possibility that one could be in the coming days, according to state media.

There is still the potential for even the initial memorandum of understanding to be derailed. Events overnight underscored the fragility of the moment.

U.S. forces intercepted and destroyed Iranian attack drones that were targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, military officials said.

Fighting has also persisted on Saturday in Lebanon, where Israel and the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah have been at war for more than 100 days as efforts to establish a lasting cease-fire have faltered. Iranian officials want the broader regional peace settlement to include the fighting in Lebanon and have called for the Israeli military to withdraw from Lebanese territory.

Here’s what else we are covering:

• The potential deal: A senior Trump administration official said the proposed agreement was set to establish a 60-day cease-firethat would lead to another, far more complicated negotiation on sanctions relief and Iran’s nuclear program.

• Israel: In a social media post on Friday, the Israeli defense minister, Israel Katz, said that, in the event of a deal, Israel would not withdraw from territory it occupies in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. He said the country must retain the ability to act independently to block Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

• Funeral of Iran’s former leader: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed during U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February, will be buried on July 9 in the northeastern city of Mashhad. Several days of ceremonies will begin July 4, Iranian state media reported on Saturday….

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ISW….Iran Update Special Report, June 13, 2026

1. Iranian statements regarding the contents of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) indicate that some terms of the agreement are at odds with stated US positions on the Strait of Hormuz in recent months. The agreement has two parts: a first stage that deals with an “end to the war” on all fronts, a resumption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and economic benefits for Iran, including reconstruction funds, sanctions relief, release of frozen funds, and an end to the US blockade. The second stage would deal with the nuclear issue and “one or two other [unspecified] issues.”
2. Iran is likely attempting to structure the MoU and the phasing of a final agreement to reduce US leverage before later negotiations over the nuclear program. Iran is attempting to access at least some of its frozen assets early in the MoU process, for example, which would give it some economic relief before nuclear talks begin.
3. Iranian media appears to be portraying a possible MoU as a tactical pause in the war rather than a final settlement. The Ghalibaf-affiliated Khorasan outlet argued on June 13 that the emerging agreement only aims to end the current war and does not resolve the underlying issues between Iran and the United States.
4. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi’s readout of the MoU is largely consistent with IRGC-affiliated media’s readout of the latest possible agreement, which may indicate a growing consensus among Iranian regime leaders on Iran’s red lines for negotiations. That Araghchi’s June 12 readout and IRGC media’s account of the latest US-Iran MoU are very similar suggests that Vahidi or elements close to him may have successfully driven consensus on their preferred policy outcomes.