Interesting…..
The Saudi’s ARE talking to Iran back channel?
The UAE is seeking a way to bypass the Strait of Hormuz?
The UAE continues to reach out to Israel….
Trump and Iran are NOT cuttingeach other breaks in their stated goals in the conflict…
US Gas prices keep climbing with no agreement from the two sides….
Will Trump actually go back to attacking Iran , resuming the ‘War’ that has got Trump little to NOTHING except BILLION’s in cost to the US Tax payer and bad poll numbers for Trump along with a unhappy Congress??
Israel and Hezbollah have a 45 day cease fire that probably isn’t one….
ISW….Iran Update Special Report, May 15, 2026
- Senior Iranian officials continue to demand guarantees against future US-Israeli attacks as a precondition for negotiations, and the Iranian regime likely views recognized control over the Strait of Hormuz as one such guarantee.
- The People’s Republic of China (PRC) does not appear to have made a clear commitment to support US efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s assertion of control over the strait is inconsistent with the long-stated PRC position, however.
- Iran may have decided to deprioritize certain restrictive measures in the Strait of Hormuz, such as toll collection, in order to encourage states such as the PRC to cooperate with Iran and implicitly recognize its control over the strait.
- The Iranian regime is attempting to ease economic pressures that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports is imposing upon the Iranian economy by taking measures to preserve necessary economic resources, while attempting to keep the Iranian public calm ahead of expected shortages.
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced on May 15 that it will accelerate efforts to double the export capacity in Fujairah to bypass the Strait of Hormuz and reduce the UAE’s strategic vulnerability. This reflects a broader strategy that Gulf states are adopting to safeguard energy exports from future disruption through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.
- Unspecified Western diplomats told Western media on May 14 that Saudi Arabia is discussing pursuing a potential non-aggression pact with Iran after the war, but it is unclear how much meaningful progress there has been towards such a pact. Iran could theoretically attack Gulf states under the guise of targeting US assets in each country, even under such a pact.
- The recent war has showcased the UAE’s adoption of a more assertive posture against Iran amid its deepening security ties with Israel.
- The US State Department announced on May 15 that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend the temporary ceasefire for an additional 45 days.
- Iranian-backed Iraqi militia leaders and political figures are threatening to withdraw their support for new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaidi’s government amid US pressure to deny Iranian-backed figures positions of influence in the Iraqi government.
- US authorities charged senior Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah commander Mohammad Baqer Saad Dawoud al Saadi with planning attacks targeting civilians in the United States, Canada, and Europe.
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Labor Department figures showed that gasoline prices are up more than 28% compared with a year ago. However, the AAA motor club listed the average regular gallon of gasoline above $4.50 on Tuesday, about 44% more than it cost last year at this time.
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President Trump returned from China on Friday facing major decisions on Iran, as his top aides have drafted plans for a return to military strikes if Mr. Trump decides to try to break the impasse with more bombs.
Mr. Trump has yet to make a decision on his next steps, the aides say. Officials from interested countries have been trying to patch together a compromise that would prompt Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and allow Mr. Trump to declare victory and try to convince skeptical American voters that the expensive and deadly military foray into Iran was a success.
But Mr. Trump reiterated to reporters aboard Air Force One soon after he left Beijing on Friday that Iran’s latest peace offer was unacceptable.
“I looked at it, and if I don’t like the first sentence I just throw it away,” he said.
Mr. Trump said he discussed Iran with President Xi Jinping of China, a strategic partner of Tehran that depends on oil and gas shipped through the strait. But he said he did not ask Mr. Xi to pressure Iran, and full details of their discussions have not yet emerged….
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Israel Hamas hunting continues….
Neither side has said whether al-Haddad was killed in Friday’s strike. “There are initial indications that the strike against Izz a-Din al-Haddad was successful,” said an Israeli security official. Another official said a damage assessment was still pending. Both spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive details. Hamas did not respond to requests for comment….
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