Ukraine…Russia Day 1444….A Cold Winter of Fighting

A look at the exhausted but resolved on the frozen frontlines of Ukraine…..

ISW….Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 6, 2026

1. The Kremlin continues to reject any meaningful security guarantees that would protect Ukraine from complete diplomatic or military capitulation.
2. The Russian military command is reportedly planning to deploy its likely limited strategic reserves to a planned Summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine. The Russian military likely lacks sufficient reserves to both adequately prepare for such an offensive and achieve the offensive’s objectives, however.
3. Russian forces have been setting conditions for future offensive operations in the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk and Orikhiv-Zaporizhzhia City directions yet have been struggling to make significant advances in the area.
4. Russian forces likely seized Hulyaipole – a town with a pre-war population of roughly 13,000 – after three months of fighting and are unlikely to make rapid advances beyond Hulyaipole without deprioritizing other areas of the frontline.
5. SpaceX’s block on unregistered Starlink terminal operations in Ukraine is reportedly hindering Russian ground operations and tactical strikes.
6. Unknown actors conducted an assassination attempt on Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) First Deputy Head Lieutenant General Vladimir Alekseyev in Moscow City on February 6.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area….

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Talking to the exhausted but resolved on the frozen frontlines of Ukraine

Coldest winter

Because of the threat from so-called loitering drones, which hang in the sky looking for targets, Rudyi and his comrades can no longer reach their positions by vehicle. Instead, they must trudge 15 miles through the snow, carrying 66 pounds of equipment. That in turn necessitates longer stays on the frontline, with comrades sometimes hospitalized by frostbite. Even bathroom breaks are perilous.

“Taking a s–t outside is terrifying,” Rudyi grins. “You know a drone might come for you and it’s impossible to relax.”

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Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, Zelensky met with American and Russian officials this week for yet another round of President Trump’s peace talks, which have now been dragging on for nearly a year. Ahead of the meeting, Zelensky told French TV that 55,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died.

The talks remain deadlocked over Vladimir Putin’s demand for Ukraine to give up four key towns in the eastern Donbas region, which Kyiv fears will simply whet Moscow’s appetite for more.

Not that anyone on Kharkiv’s frontlines follows the talks much. Many haven’t even heard of Steve Witkoff, Trump’s golfing buddy turned presidential negotiator to Russia. And those who did pay attention at first have now largely lost interest due to the lack of progress.

Instead, in the time-honored tradition of trench warfare, all most Ukrainian soldiers can really afford to think about is the immediate patch of land they are defending. Which, in the coldest winter since the war, is no longer muddy steppe but one giant, shell-scarred ice rink.

The trenches begin to resemble bob-sleigh runs, making it hard to move without falling. And at times, the only thing that still seems to work are the soldiers’ Kalashnikovs — famous for being the most durable weapons in the world.

“Everything ceases to function in this weather — smart phone batteries die super-quickly, and vehicles often won’t start,” said “Gregory,” another soldier at the roadside grill. “I can’t begin to explain how tough it is — all we have is each other and our black humor.”

‘Everyone’s exhausted’

One soldier whose services are much in demand is “Sergei,” who worked as a civilian roadside mechanic before the war. Today, he runs a rather more dangerous breakdown service — answering calls from tanks and military vehicles that have broken down on the frontlines.

“I was always known as a quick mechanic so when I volunteered for the army I was asked to the same job,” said Sergei, 33. “Fixing an old Soviet-era tank is often actually easier than doing a modern BMW or Lada, as they don’t have any fancy electronics that go wrong — some of those we use are 50 years old or more.”

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In the extreme cold, one hazard is tanks’ metal caterpillar tracks freezing to the ground, leaving them stuck fast. No breakdown van can tow a 40-ton T-72. “The only thing that is strong enough to do that is another tank,” Sergei says.

One effect of extremely cold weather used to be that it led to a lull in the fighting, with both sides simply too cold to want to go on the offensive. With much of the warfare conducted now by remote-controlled drones, however, there is no real let-up.

“Everyone’s exhausted, and conditions are awful — we share the dug-outs with mice and rats, who also want to get away from the cold,” Sergei said. “Everybody just wants to finish the war, but I’m not sure that’s ever going to happen. The frontlines are pretty static, and short of one side or other using an atom bomb, I don’t think anyone is going to prevail.”….

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Four years of hell

True, Kharkiv has been through worse than this and survived. In the first days of the war, Russian troops poured over the border, only to be beaten back on the city’s outskirts, giving Ukraine one of its first major victories.

The Kremlin then mounted a second attempt to take Kharkiv in summer 2024, capturing the nearby border town of Vovchansk and slowly pushing to their current positions north of Saltivka. But thanks to the Russians’ superior supplies of manpower, shells and drones, nobody is sure how much longer the Ukrainians can hold out.

Feb. 24 will mark the fourth anniversary of the war — and four years during which Gregory has barely seen his daughter, who was four when it began. She is part of a new generation of war children whose fathers’ presence in their lives is mainly via patchy Zoom calls from the trenches.

“I’d say I’ve seen her no more than about two months in total over the last four years,” he said. “The rest of the time I’m just a Dad online. I’d really like all this to end soon, but do I honestly think it will? No.”

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