Consensus ?
Certain Democratic US House majority….
US Senate Wins by Democrats …
But?
Democrats are NOT gonna grab ALL the Red State Races…
In July and again in September, Times Opinion asked six polling and politics experts to look into their crystal balls and predict who would win control of the House and the Senate. Between July and September, they identified a shift in momentum toward the Democrats — a blue wave forming, but not exactly a blue tsunami.
Now, with just about a week to go, the polling suggests an extremely favorable environment for Democrats. When Times Opinion asked the same panel who would win if the elections were held today, five of them said Democrats would win both chambers. (One didn’t want to get his hopes up too high.) These are not scientific computations but educated guesses from people who think a lot about politics. They offer a fairly optimistic picture of what the future holds for Democrats as they struggle to claw back control of Congress.
Which party will control the House and the Senate?
To win a majority, 218 is the magic number in the House. Democrats would need to pick up at least four Senate seats (for a total of 51, including the two independents who caucus with them) to overcome the vice president’s tiebreaking vote and control the chamber…
…
I’m taking numbers from the Silver Bulletin model “as is” for the Senate and the House. Republicans seem to be all but giving up on the House, and if something like the Times/Siena generic ballot poll is anywhere close to right (with Democrats favored by 11 percentage points), even Republican gerrymanders that were intended to produce flips might start to fail. That’s a big “if.” But ifthat’s the national environment we’re seeing, you’ll probably also see some surprising pickups in House districts against Republican candidates who have never faced an environment like this one.
Despite improved Democratic polling, I’m not moving my Senate forecast up, because of the base-line partisanship of the states in many of the close Senate races. It is looking like a very good year for Democrats, so a state like Ohio, at Trump plus 11.2 in 2024, seems like a safe Democratic pickup. The trio of seats around plus 13 (Alaska, Texas, Iowa) are also all in play. However, the next seat after that is Kansas, at Trump plus 16, followed by South Carolina at plus 18. Democrats are likely to top out in the Alaska-Texas-Iowa zone, winning two of those three states.
Jon Cooper 🇺🇸@joncoopertweets
🚨GOP SENATE MAJORITY IN SERIOUS DANGER.
Nate Silver gives Democrats a 75% chance of taking the Senate.
🔵 NC: Cooper +10
🔵 GA: Ossoff +8
🔵 TX: Talarico +2
🔵 MI: El-Sayed +2
🔵 IA: Turek +2
🔵 AK: Peltola +1.6
Election Night could become a Senate wipeout for the GOP.
#VOTE
Notice who MISSING?