Shoulda left things alone?
Punchbowl News: “President Donald Trump and House Republicans thought they had a winning midterm strategy — redraw congressional maps in red states to gain an insurmountable edge heading into 2026.”
“This would be a huge plus for Trump, who wouldn’t have to face a Democratic-run House or a possible impeachment push. And Speaker Mike Johnson currently holds only a two-vote edge that could easily be swept away if the midterms go badly for Republicans.”
“But their strategy hasn’t worked out as planned. In fact, it now looks like Trump and House GOP leaders may have been better off not doing anything at all.”
Playbook: “As of now, with the Texas map in limbo, Democrats have carved out six potential districts (in California and Utah) that could tip in their favor in next year’s midterms, compared to the Republicans’ four (in Missouri, Ohio and North Carolina). The story is far from over, but it’s a staggering swing of fortunes for Dems at this point.”
Another example of how things Trump touch tend to turn to shit…..
House Rating Changes: Six Moves Toward Democrats, Although Topline Remains Close
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Despite the haze over the House battlefield thanks to a flood of mid-decade redistricting, Democrats remain favored to flip the House majority next year.
— The one thing that could really change the House calculus would be a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. A maximally positive ruling for Republicans issued early enough in the cycle could allow them to add multiple safe seats in the South ahead of next year’s elections.
— With six states having redistricted so far, the median House seat by presidential performance has actually shifted slightly toward Democrats, a finding that is both subject to change and also somewhat surprising given Republican ambitions at the start of 2025’s redistricting battle.
— There are six rating changes this week, including a couple in Virginia and another two in Latino-heavy South Texas. We are still operating under the premise that the new Republican gerrymander in Texas will be in place next year, although a federal judicial panel ruled against it on Tuesday.
— The next House election to watch is in deeply Republican TN-7, which is holding a special election on Tuesday, Dec. 2. That race remains rated Likely Republican, but don’t be surprised if Democrats hold the GOP to a much more modest win than Donald Trump’s 22-point victory there in 2024.
Sabato….