I KNOW a lot of pundits and media outfits are worried about Clinton/Trump 2016 Election night…..
But THAT was Then….
Last time around?
Donald Trump LOST…..
And he’s been losing ever since….
If you are political junkie (Dog like me) looking into the polling since Biden dropped and Harris stepped in you ARE going to notice a clear pattern…..
Trump dropped from his lead on Biden and has NOT recovered….
We now have an idea of what the steady-state dynamic in this race looks like: It’s Harris +2.
We’ve been at more-or-less Harris +2 since August 20. During that period we’ve had a ton of exogenous events: jobs reports, an interest rate cut, ramp-up in Israel-Hezbollah, two debates, more Trump scandals than I can remember. Despite everything, 2 points is about where we stayed.
This stability suggests that Harris +2 is the natural balance point unless/until late-deciding voters move in the final two weeks. If (or when) that happens, I would tentatively expect them to break for Harris, since she’s the functional insurgent.
But what I want you to focus on is the extent to which this race has been locked in place for a month and a half. Because as good a campaign as Harris has run—and I think she’s run an excellent campaign—she’s only gained 3 total points since she entered the race in late July. She went from 46 percent to 49 percent.
Which leads us to the second story: During the same period, all of the other numbers for Harris specifically and Democrats generally have been fantastic.
…….
Let’s start with Harris herself. On July 20, her net favorability was -16. Today it’s +0.8. So her favorability jumped 17 points while her general election number went up . . . 3 points. Okay. Not quite sure how that works.
Now let’s look at the generic congressional ballot. On July 21, Republicans held a +0.6 advantage. Today, Democrats are +3, for a 4-point swing.
We’ve also seen congressional numbers moving in the ratings changes issued by the lovable nerds at Cook. For instance:
Since September 5, Cook moved the projections of 12 races towards Democrats and only one towards Republicans. That’s a lot.
And over the last six weeks, Cook shifted three Senate races towards Democrats (Nebraska, Texas, and Nevada) and one toward Republicans (Montana). Now maybe Republicans wind up winning all four of those seats—that would not be an outlier.
But the point is that the market-makers at Cook are seeing movement towards Democrats across the board. In House and Senate races. In Iowa and Illinois and Texas and Nevada. The Cook team saw that movement even while Harris’s margin against Trump remained locked in at +2.
And that’s the story with every piece of data outside the top line Trump-Harris number.1
Down-ballot Democrats are trending upwards. Harris’s favorables moved upwards. The economic news has been—literally without exception—good.
And through all of that, the Harris-Trump margin stayed stuck at +2.
How do you explain that?……
More behind a Bulwark paywall….
Contrary to the boosterism here?
I think Harris’ s momentum has stalled .
All the more reason to get out the vote. Last Saturday I was one of 50 people at a neighbor’s house writing postcards to Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
Missouri could be fruitful with enough elbow grese put in, a la Kansas. Wagner and Luetkemeyer’s districts would hold the key for success for Harris/Walz and Kunce, as well as district candidates Ray Hartman and Bethany Mann.
Bingo Scott!
Let’s NOT SAY we got this and people do NOT come out and vote
Let’s be be the underdog that the media ALWAYS plays to!
Might look into postcards for the Senate race and the Wagner Congressional race.
Poll out today with her UP 7…….
She ain’t Hillary
What poll? What state?
No, she ain’t Hillary. At this point in 2016, Hillary was up 12 points nationally.
And Hillary was not campaigning like Harris is
And Trump wasn’t a felon
There are some really bad battleground state polls for Harris that are coming out, including in the last few minutes, that are going to get a lot of attention. Overreaction is common in politics, but smart Democrats are said to actually be pretty concerned right now about the status of the race. All that money that is being raised will need to be used for the right purposes.
Lots of polls showing different results. We really do need a second debate.
Did donate to a Congressional candidate in Western NC and for the NC Labor Commissioner candidate.
There will be be NO MORE DEBATES
Trump tried Debates
THAT DID NOT WORK
I’ve previously told of my interest in “ focus groups,” mostly as of great entertainment value.Its a chance to see how really dumb the average voter in this country is.Humorously many of the participants reveal a total lack of knowledge as to how the government even functions.
The one in the NYT yesterday was so absurd it was hard to read.After essentially admitting all of Trumps transgressions and conceding that he was all the bad things commonly said about him ,they as a group still “ lean” toward him.
The late political columnist Jack Germond often said the American people get the give they deserve.So, maybe we deserve Donald Trump?
James Carville regularizing “It’s the economy, stupid” as essentially the only thing voters should care about continues to do tremendous damage.
I am letting a left-wing Democrat doing poorly in Quinnipiac polls ruin my day. What the hell is wrong with me?
Ah?
Left Wing?
Who?