Two weeks out….
Nate Cohn on his view of the status of the polls two weeks out from Election Day….
With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer.
Kamala Harris and Donald J. Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single point — in The New York Times’s polling average of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
In North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Michigan, neither candidate even “leads” by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states….
…
The past week’s polls made a clearer case for movement toward Mr. Trump.
Nationwide, Ms. Harris is now ahead by just one point in our average, her smallest lead since the Democratic convention. Most of the major national polls have showed a shift toward Mr. Trump since their prior surveys:
-
Mr. Trump led by two points nationwide in a Fox News poll; Ms. Harris led by two points in its prior poll.
-
Fairleigh Dickinson University found Ms. Harris ahead by three nationwide, while she led by seven in its prior poll.
-
Marquette Law School found a tied race, compared with a six-point lead for Ms. Harris in August.
-
Ipsos fielded several polls showing Ms. Harris up between two and four points over the last week, compared with leads of mostly five or six points in September.
-
Emerson College found a tied race, compared with a two-point lead for Ms. Harris in its prior poll.
There was only one major national poll showing Ms. Harris faring better this past week: the Marist poll, which showed her up five points nationwide, up from two points a few weeks ago. The YouGov/Economist poll showed no change; she’s still up by four points.
Together with the previous week’s polling, the balance of evidence suggests that Mr. Trump has gained some ground. The size of his gains shouldn’t be overstated — we’re talking about a point or so — but it has nonetheless been enough to make the race more or less truly tied. Whatever edge Ms. Harris might have had has vanished.
A Harris bright spot in North Carolina?
There’s only one state where the Times average has swung at least a point toward Ms. Harris: North Carolina.
This past week, a Quinnipiac poll found Ms. Harris ahead by three points, even as Mr. Trump held a wide lead in its survey of Georgia. And a Cygnal poll found Mr. Trump up by less than a point in North Carolina…..
Note….
There have been questions on some recent polls having partisan influences….
Washington Post…..
Among likely voters, the vice president leads in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Trump enjoys advantages in Arizona and North Carolina. The two candidates are tied with 48 percent support apiece in Nevada.
Harris is leading in Georgia, 51 percent to Trump’s 47 percent. The Peach State narrowly went to President Biden in the 2020 election, and Harris has spent a lot of her late-launched campaign in the state.
The Hill…
As I have been saying here
No real change
Harris MAINTAINS a slight lead as Trump crawl’s up a point or so
This Washington Post poll was in the field for over a month. That methodology makes it harder to take seriously, as much as all of us would like to see “good news.”
I will report that my parents both voted today on the first day of early voting in Cook County. Both voted for Harris, even my father who still believes almost everything he hears on Fox News or reads on Facebook.
What changed your dad’s mind, CG? I’ve heard you mention him being a low info Trump guy in the past.
He wrote someone in last time. Would have created a huge problem in the family if he actually voted for Trump. I know that January 6 upset him a lot.
Of course, in Illinois, its all largely irrelevant.
Gonna be a LOT of people who get to the machine and THINK of ALL the crazed assed shit Trump IS fronting and change their minds about voting for the White Guy….
Ah?
Like we said…..
Gonna be MORE people changing their mind’s and voting AGAINST the crazy guy…..
Jon Cooper 🇺🇸
@joncoopertweets
Holy shit! My conservative Republican neighbor, who I’ve mentioned a few times over the past months, is voting for Kamala Harris! He says he changed his mind after watching her Fox News interview. I know it’s just one vote, but if you knew this man you’d be just as shocked as me!
Glad to hear your parents did the right thing and voted for Harris.
I strongly disagree that their votes to save our Republicc are “irrelevant”. Yes in terms of the outdated Electoral College the states we both live in are not the ones who will decide the Presidential election. But the sentiment of rejecting fascism transcends geographic boundaries.
I have been saying here that Trump HAS BEEN LOSING support around the edges for some time
He IS a menace to society
My own views of the race notwithstanding, you cannot trust a poll that’s been in the field for a month. Say 990 still feel the same way by election day, yet 10 do not. A change of even 1% makes a difference.