Ok?
The linked stuff below is from ole’ Nate Silver who is getting paid from Republican Betting guy, Peter Thiel..…
Silver, whose first love is betting action , made the headlines by fronting a Trump polling lead, that was NOT there a few weeks ago….
He seems to be atoning for his sins….
Nate Silver: “Chastened by their errors in 2016 and 2020, many pollsters are applying what until now had been a relatively uncommon technique: weighting their samples based on how people say they voted in the last election. Nate Cohn of the New York Times has a terrific explainer on this topic that I’d strongly recommend you read in detail.”
“The reason pollsters traditionally haven’t liked to do this is because people often misremember or misstate who they voted for, in particular being more likely to say that they voted for the previous winner — in this case, Biden.”
“This is complicated by the fact that Biden is now quite unpopular — so people may not be so eager to say they voted for him — and that many Republican voters mistakenly believe Trump won.”
“In theory, however, this could be one reason that polls underestimate Harris. If someone mistakenly says they voted for Biden in 2020 but had actually voted for Trump, and then says they plan to vote for Trump in 2024, it will look like there’s been a shift toward Trump when there actually hasn’t been.”
NBC News Poll shows Harris and Trump tied 48% each.
He, he, he…..
CBS poll shows Harris ahead 51/48 nationally but in “ swing states by only I point.
Of course this race is a tossup and anyone refusing to label it so is in my view a non serious cheerleader.
See where an unusual number of Black men are supporting Trump.
One reason given is that they don’t take his racist tinged Blabbering “ seriously.”
Suppose they’re wrong?
Going to try ducking out of these pointless conversations for the next 2 1/2 weeks. But I do think a clarification of terms is necessary.
“Toss-up” is an overused term connoting an actual close race. Sentiments are baked in one way or another, and swing voters will largely break in one direction or another. “Ambiguous” reflects both the brokenness of polling, the fact that one candidate or another will win by a convincing margin, and that either squirrel could gather the necessary nuts. With a few more paths than Trump, Harris’ side of the coin is certainly weighted in a coin flip, but him winning can’t be totally ruled out. All these polls showing the race tighter than teenage pussy notwithstanding.
I agree SE….
But again….
The horse race works for the media AND HARRIS….
It WILL come down to voter turnout…
And further agree that with two weeks to go?
Some the media stuff is turning into a dog chasing his tail bull shit…
Every election is about “ turnout.”
She LEADS….
Has been that way from the jump…
Th head knucklehead in campaigning in California and New York?
WTF?????
Why should the conversations here be uh “ pointless “ over the next 2 weeks or so anymore than they are over the other 50 weeks of the year?
I suspect hashing out polls is, for me personally, a futile exercise when I could be contributing in other ways.
“ Tossup is overused connoting an actual close race.”
Uh what word(s) do you prefer?
Or is it your contention that it is not an” actual close race?”
I don’t think it will be close. Whether it’s Harris or Trump on the winning end of that is hard to decipher at this point.
Lots of junk polls with twisted methodology. I remember well the gaudy Biden leads almost entirely getting reduced to ashes by Election Day ’20, as well as the same for 22’s “Red Wave.” It’s why I’m waiting to make an official prediction until Halloween or beyond.
Put another way, while I’m still relatively optimistic, it’s all coming back down to earth in the final stretch.
Yea SE….
The media IS just hopping around….
I see a Harris win…
But it IS up to the voters in the end…
So do you agree that it will not be close and presumably based on your statement that Harris will win easily?
My feeling IS that Harris will win based on NOW reads….
EVERY model reflects this , I REPEAT…
Define ‘Close’?
I think Schumer become’s Minority leader in the US Senate…
Jeffires become’s Speaker….
Schumer’s position is increasingly dicey. Agreed on Jeffries.