Both outfits have Harris winning…..
But?
The iconic pundit is now openly fighting with his former place of work….
He, he, he…..
This 38 days out from Election Day….
Nate Silver: “A lot of polling since our last update, and the model mostly liked it for Harris — especially the national polls, which show her lead expanding to an even 3 points. There were exceptions, notably in Arizona, though the model somewhat shrugs Arizona polling off since it’s relatively unlikely to be the tipping-point state, making it among the less critical swing states. Instead, Plan A for Harris runs through Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — and Plan B involves North Carolina, Georgia or both.”
“The forecast is still in toss-up range, but we’re getting to the point where we’d say we’d rather have Harris’ hand to play.
…
Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Nate Silver trashed his former website in a Vanity Fair interview saying the FiveThirtyEight model is “broken” and added: “I don’t think you can trust anything from that forecaster.”
Silver boasted at the start of 2022 about how good his prediction of Eric Adams as a future President was looking. So I give no credence to what he has to say.