Allan Lichtman has updated his “Keys to the White House” forecasting model and predicts Kamala Harris will win the presidential election.
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From Nate Cohn @ NY Times…
At the end of it all, the presidential campaign almost feels as if it’s back to “normal.” The candidates fought over the issues and their agendas. There were no questions about whether a candidate was going to drop out. And if the polls are any indication, public opinion is finally settling into something more like normal as well.
Just take a look at our polling averages, which have been updated since Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s departure from the race (a return to normal in its own right). There’s no sign of the political chaos of the last few months. Instead, the results look typical: Nationwide, Kamala Harris leads Donald J. Trump by three percentage points, 49 percent to 46 percent. Across the battleground states, the race is a dead heat. In every state and nationwide, the polling average is within 1.5 points of the result of the 2020 presidential election….
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Lichman Keys….
“Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States — at least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he said at the end of the video.
The 13 keys include whether:
- The White House party gained seats in the House in midterm elections
- The incumbent president is running
- The White House party avoided a primary contest
- A third-party candidate is running
- The short-term economy is strong
- Growth of long-term economy has been as strong as last two terms
- The White House has enacted major national policy changes
- There is no social unrest
- There is no scandal in the White House
- The incumbent party candidate has charisma
- The challenger is uncharismatic
- The White House had foreign policy success
- The White House had foreign policy failure
Note….
Trump LOST the 2020 Election to Joe Biden……
Not just “another guy”. Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 Presidential elections and the one he got “wrong” was basically a tie.
Opposition to Lichtman…..
Allan Lichtman’s ‘Keys to the White House’ Are Nonsense
Jonathan Last: “Lichtman’s keys are not objective. The professor sells his model as a series of straightforward ‘true/false’ propositions. But he leaves a lot of room for subjectivity.”
“Some of the keys have actual answers. (‘Did the incumbent party gain House seats in the previous midterm?’) But most of them are nebulous.”
“Are the incumbent and challenger nominees charismatic? Lichtman says that neither Harris nor Trump qualifies as charismatic. I do not understand this judgment. Harris has excited and unified her party in less than a month. Trump has created a cult of personality unlike anything in American political history.”
“This isn’t a ‘key’ so much as a way for the modeler to build in some wiggle room.”