Nate Silver’s polling average shows Kamala Harris expanding her national lead over Donald Trump, 48% to 43.7%.
This is based entirely on polls conducted before Harris’ speech and before the end of the Democratic convention….
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Nate Silvers site….
We will be making further changes, but we need a day or two to sort through the options: it would have been more straightforward if RFK had just unambiguously withdrawn. It’s not a particularly hard problem from a programming standpoint, but it’s been a busy day — Harris accepted the Democratic nomination last night and we have a long take for you on that, too.
As far as the polls themselves went, Harris got some promising data, so you can see a clear uptick for her in our national polling average. However, the model is now applying the a convention bounce adjustment to polls that were conducted during the DNC, so she only ticked up just slightly in the forecast part of our model, which adjusts for this. Again, this is not yet the full post-RFK version of the forecast….
Trump says he will be “great” for reproductive rights and indicates that he has no problem with IVF ,sort of like Kamala Harris saying she would be great for billionaires wanting a tax cut.
One could deduce that Trump is treating his anti abortion supporters with total contempt,figuring they will stand with him no matter what.More than likely though the pathological liar was just mindlessly running his mouth.Maybe a clarification will be in the offing.
Former VP Mike Pence ,in shades of Susan Collins , finds the remarks “concerning.”
Trump was NEVER a HARDCORE anti-Abortion Guy….
Still isn’t….
You ARE on point Jack……
It’s the tail waging the dog….
Ruf…Ruf…..
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