The ex-President CANNOT get his first government job back if he does NOT carry the Independent vote….
The ABC News piece below is mostly about the Republican primaries but extended to the November 2024 General Election?
This is NOT a good thing for Republicans who need ANY vote advantace they can get …..
To be clear, Trump usually leads among independent voters in primary polls — just by smaller margins than he does among self-identified Republicans. In what may be an obvious point, his large advantage among Republicans matters a great deal considering far more Republicans will vote in the GOP contest than independents (or Democrats, for that matter). During the competitive periods of the 2008, 2012 and 2016 Republican presidential primaries, around 70 to 75 percent of primary and caucus voters identified as Republican, according to ABC News’s aggregate exit poll data, while about 20 to 25 percent identified as independent or something else (5 percent or fewer identified as Democrats). But if the Republican race does tighten in the next few months, the preferences of independent voters could matter, particularly in New Hampshire, which has one of the largest blocs of unaffiliated voters of any state in the country.
Throughout the campaign, we’ve seen Trump perform better among Republicans than among GOP-leaning independents in primary polls. For instance, a May 2023 Quinnipiac University pollfound Trump attracting 60 percent among Republicans, but just 46 percent among Republican-leaning independents. Earlier this month, Quinnipiac found Trump pulling in 67 percent of Republicans, compared with 47 percent of GOP leaners. And across national surveys conducted since Aug. 1 with available crosstab data, we usually saw a meaningful gap in support for Trump between Republicans and independents….
We’re also seeing the split between Republicans and independents in state-level polling, too, which is important because parties don’t use a national primary to determine their nominees. Instead, they employ a sequential, state-by-state process in which the places that vote first influence — sometimes more, sometimes less — the elections that follow. So if the race becomes more competitive than it is right now, independents who cast a ballot in the GOP primary could influence the outcome, especially in independent-rich New Hampshire….
If Trump’s relative weakness among independents holds up once voting begins next year, it will represent a notable shift in his base of support compared to his first run in 2016. Back then, Trump performed similarly well among Republicans and independents, attracting 42 percent support among Republicans and 38 percent among independents during the competitive part of the primary (until early May 2016). Yet this time around, he may have more overwhelming backing from Republicans than independents, in part because, in a reversal from 2016, he’s getting somewhat more support from very conservative voters, who are more likely to identify as Republican,…