Democratic House Speaker Pelosi only has a 5 seat majority right now….
The Sabato people are doubling down on the view that Democrats are gonna repeat their 2010 beatdown in House elections….
Right now?
I’d be inclined to agree….
And Joe Biden isn’t gonna help much for his party if his numbers keep tanking…..
Redistricting and Republican tampering with election process stuff ain’t gonna help Democrats either….
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We’ve said before that the Republicans were favored to win the House majority next year, both because of redistricting and also because of the usual midterm trend that breaks against the party in the White House, among other factors. Following the completion of this redistricting preview, we have not changed our view on that.”
“We did our own back-of-the-envelope projections of the House and anticipated some aggressive (but not maximally aggressive) gerrymandering by both Republicans and Democrats, where applicable. We also assumed a somewhat neutral political environment, which very well may not end up being the case – in all likelihood, Joe Biden’s currently net-negative approval rating needs to rebound for there to be even a neutral environment next year as opposed to a Republican-leaning one.”
“Anyway, we got a GOP net gain of roughly a dozen seats, more than the five-seat improvement they need from the 2020 results to win the House majority. This is a deliberately modest outlook, and Republicans could easily blow past it next year, while there are also scenarios under which Democrats are able to minimize those GOP gains and perhaps even save their majority. But our default expectation has been, and remains, a Republican House takeover next year.”
Note….
Biden himself may be in trouble already for 2024….
While some conservatives (including the prognosticator) will still deny it, the US was showing some authoritarian tendencies under GWB. Trump of course brought this to a new level, but it is helpful and important not to think this all started with Trump. Because the GOP’s authoritarianism won’t end with Trump either, and we better not forget it.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/40550717
James Sensenbrenner (R-Wisc.) was chair of House Judiciary when the U.S.A. Patriot Act was first crafted; he was able to get a consensus bill supported by his whole committee from Bill Barr (R-Ga) to Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) — but at the last minute on the House floor, the Bush administration [led by Atty-Gen. John Ashcroft] tacked on a whole bunch of long-time surveillance & repression wish-list items from the FBI, CIA, Justice Dept, NSA, etc., so late that the texts were still being Xeroxed during debate, and no Congressman had time to read all the raft of amendments.
Although Sensenbrenner supported the final product, he later disowned his own baby at the most recent chance to excise the most repressive elements (e.g. demands for library records)
1. Sorry, that wasn’t Bill Barr, but Bob Barr (Robert Barr), who although a USAF JAG prosecutor, had a libertarian streak, later consulted for the ACLU, and eventually became a Libertarian candidate.
2. At some point, the GWBush administration and the G.O.P. broke up the initial cross-party unity and consensus, and tried to use 9/11 as a wedge against the Democrats, both in the Nov. 2002 mid-terms and to force through the Iraqi AUMF (which over 60% of House Democrats opposed but which was supported by 29 out of 50 Democratic Senators).
Barr was the Libertarian presidential candidate in 2008.
He later left the LP and rejoined the Republican Party but lost a bid in 2014 to reclaim his Congressional seat.
Yes there is some feeling here(mostly from our host) that when Trump exits the scene, the Republican Party will somehow become more “moderate,” that these past five years or so has been an aberration.
In my view, that is a total misreading of what has happened to the Republican Party.There has always been a certain authoritarian element but during the Trump years such has become the guiding principle of the party and those Republicans who oppose such are either shunted to the sidelines (see Mitt Romney) or become the source of active derision(see Liz Cheney).
The idea that merely eliminating Trump from the equation will cause some dramatic change in the Republican Party going forward is a mere chimera.
He’s not the only one Jack, but I do remember our host telling me January 6th was in the rear view mirror and we should all look forward.
Yes, forward to the next attack on our democracy perpetrated by an out of control authoritarian party of racists.
Right Now?
Jan. 6 IS Mostly in the rear mirror
But Congress , The House, IS slowly dragging it back….
The Justice Dept and Courts Are doing action mostly out of the media
As usual?
Fast moving Events tend grab the headlines in the media
More piling on about Democratic possible woes for the Midterms next year….
The marked decline in support for President Biden and his administration nationally and in key swing states indicates that the Democratic Party could endure a blowout defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.
Moreover, Biden is in a significantly weaker position now than both of his most recent Democratic predecessors — Bill Clinton and Barack Obama — at this point in their presidencies, which suggests that Democrats could suffer even more substantial losses in 2022 than the party did in 1994 and 2010.
Indeed, voters nationally and in seven key swing states disapprove, rather than approve, of the job Biden is doing by a margin of 7 points or greater, according to a Civiqs survey released last week….
More…