Democratic House Speaker Pelosi only has a 5 seat majority right now….
The Sabato people are doubling down on the view that Democrats are gonna repeat their 2010 beatdown in House elections….
I’d be inclined to agree….
And Joe Biden isn’t gonna help much for his party if his numbers keep tanking…..
Redistricting and Republican tampering with election process stuff ain’t gonna help Democrats either….
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “We’ve said before that the Republicans were favored to win the House majority next year, both because of redistricting and also because of the usual midterm trend that breaks against the party in the White House, among other factors. Following the completion of this redistricting preview, we have not changed our view on that.”
“We did our own back-of-the-envelope projections of the House and anticipated some aggressive (but not maximally aggressive) gerrymandering by both Republicans and Democrats, where applicable. We also assumed a somewhat neutral political environment, which very well may not end up being the case – in all likelihood, Joe Biden’s currently net-negative approval rating needs to rebound for there to be even a neutral environment next year as opposed to a Republican-leaning one.”
“Anyway, we got a GOP net gain of roughly a dozen seats, more than the five-seat improvement they need from the 2020 results to win the House majority. This is a deliberately modest outlook, and Republicans could easily blow past it next year, while there are also scenarios under which Democrats are able to minimize those GOP gains and perhaps even save their majority. But our default expectation has been, and remains, a Republican House takeover next year.”
Biden himself may be in trouble already for 2024….