The NY Times Upshot editor Nate Cohen……
Joe Biden looks to be on the cusp of winning the election. Here’s a look at where the vote count stands in the key states.
President Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has plummeted to two percentage points as of Thursday morning, as the mail absentee ballot count proceeded briskly across the state.
There is every indication that Mr. Biden remains on track to pull ahead when all of the votes are in and counted, whenever that may be.
So far, Mr. Biden has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same 77-22 pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. That’s a pretty decent cushion.
That estimate may also be conservative. For one, the remaining mail ballots are disproportionately in Democratic counties, so he’ll probably do better than 77-22….
Joe Biden’s lead in Arizona fell to 2.4 points Wednesday night, as late mail ballots broke toward Mr. Trump by a significant margin. This runs counter to the pattern we’ve seen elsewhere in the country, but it was expected, or at least not a surprise…
In general, the Election Day drop-off mail ballots are usually better for Democrats. If those ballots weren’t included in Wednesday’s count, that’s good news for Mr. Biden.
No matter how you cut the data, it’s hard not to arrive at the conclusion that Mr. Biden’s lead will withstand the late vote. But there’s also enough uncertainty with the number and kind of ballots left that it would be a mistake to be too sure about it. Certainly, it is too soon to project the state for Mr. Biden….
The president’s lead in the state all but vanished overnight. Mr. Trump now leads by four-tenths of a percentage point — just under 19,000 votes — after heavily Democratic ballots in the Atlanta area were finally counted. There are still more absentee ballots left for Mr. Biden.
It’s not clear how many ballots there are and where. We received conflicting information this morning, and things are so close that even modest differences will be decisive.
This morning, the Georgia secretary of state initially said there were 25,000 ballots remaining. If so, Mr. Biden’s push might fall just short of victory, though he’d still have a chance with provisional ballots. Then, later in the morning, the secretary of state said it was 50,000 ballots. And now, The New York Times is reporting that the state voting system implementation manager says there are 61,367 remaining ballots. The latter numbers come a lot closer to our estimates, and that would be enough for Mr. Biden to be a favorite. But caution is warranted, given the mixed messaging.
We didn’t get any new ballots, and Mr. Biden still holds a lead. The remaining vote: mail ballots received on Election Day and provisionals. There’s reason to expect these will pad Mr. Biden’s lead: Democrats were outpacing Republicans by a two-to-one margin in the state’s mail ballot returns, and provisionals lean Democratic just about everywhere. But we’ll wait to be sure. We should get more data today.
We’re still waiting to see how many mail ballots arrived after the election, and whether they’re enough to overcome the president’s lead. There’s not much reason to expect it, but here again we’ll wait to be sure…
More detailed look….