This ISN’T 2016….
Trump has the political headwind’s…
Joe Biden does NOT….
Donald Trump conveys a view from a alternate universe….
Below from Politicalwire.…
Nate Cohn: “President Trump’s surprising victory in 2016 gave him an aura of political invincibility. But he’s in a far bigger predicament now than the one he faced heading into Election Day in 2016. The polls show Joe Biden with a far more significant lead than the one held by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today.”
“Over at The Upshot, I go into the ways the polls are different today than they were in 2016, and what sort of polling error Mr. Trump would need to win at this point. (A big one.)”
Support for President Trump and Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.
The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week.
First Read has important context: Trump won these same states by a combined 2 points in 2016, 49% to 47%.
“Young voters, projected to turn out overwhelmingly for Joe Biden, could provide a huge advantage for Democrats not just this for this election, but for decades to come,” Axios reports.
My Name Is Jack says
My final calls…
Senate Democratic net pickup 4 seats(51D 49R)
House. Democratic pickup 12 seats
The latest from POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: Ratings from Senior Elections Editor Steve Shepard for every national contest, from the 538 Electoral College votes to the 435 House districts — and everything in between.
We’ve been updating our ratings all the way through Election Day. Some key points from our final predictions:
In the race for the White House, Democrat Joe Biden is the favorite entering Election Day. There is still a plausible path for President Donald Trump to win an Electoral College majority — but it is narrow.
The race for Senate control is close to a coin flip. Democrats are slight favorites, but the GOP could still hold on….
Democrats have requested 25 million ballots while Republicans have requested 14.8 million — giving Democrats roughly a 10 million ballot request lead based on data from states reporting party registration including California, Colorado, the District of Columbia, Flordia, Iowa, Maryland, Maine, North Carolina, New Jersey, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Utah….
That’s pretty optimistic for you Jack…you are definitely feeling confident…I can’t disagree with your prediction and hope you are right.
Scott P says
I’m sticking with my Biden 351 Trump 187 map. Maybe I’m being too optimistic about Florida, but low balled Obama’s wins in 2008 and 2012.
I’m giving NC and GA to Biden, the latter is a state I wrote letters and made calls to so I’ll feel a slight personal achievement if the Peach State is flipped.
I’m thinking Ohio and Iowa stay with the GOP, and Texas–while a wild card–I think will just barely stay red.
Arizona goes to Biden by about 3 points in the end.
We’ll see how wrong I was tomorrow, or the next day. Oh God I hope not the day after!
That’s MY map dammit
Good thing I am rarely wrong
Morning Consult early exit polling of voters…
The majority (57%) of people who voted early were women, compared with 43% who were men. Half of early voters were Democrats, while 29% were Republicans. #Election2020