His lead in just about every poll up to now for the STATE has been a bit over the polling margins of error….
But two new polls by smaller outfits seem to point to a closer race….
The Hill has a piece about the contest between Miami-Dade Hispanic voters who vote Democratic overwhelmingly and Cuban-Amarican ‘s who vote mostly Republicans…
Former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump in Florida’s largest county is tightening, according to a new poll, bolstering the president’s hopes in the must-win swing state.
The poll from the firm Bendixen & Amandi International and the Miami Heraldshows Biden garnering 55 percent of the vote in Miami-Dade County to Trump’s 38 percent. While that 17-point lead is well outside the poll’s +/-4.4 percentage point margin of error, it’s well short of Hillary Clinton’s 30-point victory there in 2016.
The survey also found Biden and Trump statistically tied among Miami-Dade Hispanics. The former vice president carried 46 percent support among those voters to Trump’s 47 percent.
There’s little doubt that Biden will win Miami-Dade in the November election. Democratic presidential candidates have carried the county, which encompasses Miami and its suburbs, for decades.
But Trump doesn’t need to win Miami-Dade in November to capture Florida’s 29 electoral votes, and if he’s successful at narrowing Biden’s margin of victory there, it could help him make up for possible deficits in other parts of the state, such as in the swing counties along the I-4 corridor in Central Florida.
Biden leads Trump among white and independent voters in Miami-Dade, according to the Bendixen & Amandi poll. Biden garnered 48 percent support among white voters to Trump’s 44 percent, the poll found. Among independents, the former vice president performs even better, notching a 51-33 percent lead over Trump.
The tight race between Biden and Trump for the support of Hispanic voters in Miami-Dade, however, suggests that the president has seen some success in courting Cuban-Americans, a massively influential voting bloc in Florida and especially in Miami-Dade…..
My Name Is Jack says
Florida will be a close race to the end in my view.
#NEW Florida Poll:
Trump 48% (+1)
After not leading in a single #Florida poll for over a month, Trump now gets 3 good numbers in a row (including
‘s Trump +3 from 9/4).
The race is quickly tightening there. Biden’s now down to a 70% chance to win it.
New NBC News/Marist poll of Florida:
Aug 31-Sept 6 of 766 likely voters, +/- 4.5%
(This is our first 2020 poll of FL)
1:00 PM · Sep 8, 2020·TweetDeck
The big story inside this Trump-Biden tie is that Biden is underperforming among Latinos (vs. Hillary Clinton four years ago), while Trump is underperforming among seniors.
John Rose liked
Niles Edward Francis
If I were on Team Biden I’d advise them to start running more Spanish-language ads in South FL. Biden doesn’t need to win FL, but Trump does. If Biden wins FL, there would be no path for Trump in the EC. Biden can’t sleep on FL Hispanics the way Bill Nelson did.
Remember this wave of polls ARE 8 weeks out….
Still, this polling movement in Florida—even if it exaggerates the situation a bit—makes Biden’s strategy less robust. It had the potential to deliver a knockout blow. Now, it’s one of a number of Plan B states (along with AZ, NC) if Biden doesn’t hold his leads in the Midwest.
Biden gets a better Florida poll a few minutes ago…
Scott P says
According to Dave Leip’s Election Atlas Florida has been decided by 1-2% each election going back to 2004–when Bush won it by 5.
As Jack noted–it’ll likely be close to the end.
Biden’s lead with seniors is steady though, even as he seems to under perform Clinton with Latinos. If this holds it should give Biden the slight edge given the turnout level of senior citizens compared to Latino voters
Buoyed by promised ad buys, new hires and Joe Biden’s visit on Tuesday to Kissimmee — home to a sizable Puerto Rican population — Florida Democrats are growing more confident of the party’s chances with Hispanic voters as Election Day approaches.
Florida Democrats haven’t been shy about launching attacks at their own candidate and party leadership as Biden and Donald Trump remain neck and neck in the battleground state. But that tune is changing after Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, made a stop in Miami last week and Biden chose Kissimmee for his first in-person campaign appearance….