It’s still early ….
We’ll need to see polls in the middle of ne3xt week for a more concrete call….
But Joe Biden IS still keeping a double digit lead over Donald Trump in most national polls….The other ones has him around 8% ahead off Trump well above the margin of error…
Of course the STATE polls are the ones most important and national polls should looked at a look at trends among voters…..
A new CBS News/YouGov poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally in the race for president, 52% to 42%.
This is unchanged from last week before the Democratic convention, suggesting he receive no “bounce” from the four day event…
…
Biden gains popularity in post-convention polling
Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden saw his favorability increase 5 percentage points following his party’s virtual convention last week, an ABC News-Ipsos poll found.The former vice president’s favorability increased from 40 percent to 45 percent in a week, according to the poll. This included an increase from 79 percent to 86 percent among Democrats. Black Americans gave him the highest favorability rating of any racial group, at 69 percent. His favorability is 39 percent among whites and 52 percent among Hispanics.
The poll found President Trump’s favorability around 32 percent, mostly unchanged from other recent polls, but his unfavorability increased to 60 percent. Vice President Pence had a favorability rating of 30 percent and an unfavorability rating of 46 percent.
Biden’s running mate, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), has a favorability rating of 41 percent among the three-quarters of respondents who were familiar with her. The percentage of Americans familiar enough to have an opinion of her is up 10 points from last week, shortly after she was named Biden’s running mate.
Her approval among Black Americans increased 8 percentage points, from 52 to 60 percent. Among Democrats overall, her favorability reached 77 percent.
Biden’s ratings are higher than former Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, who saw her favorability slightly underwater, at 48 favorable and 50 percent unfavorable, following the 2016 Democratic National Convention….
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris ARE getting a polling ‘bounce’ from their convention coverage….
Here’s the Republican side to CBS poll….
The majority of Republicans have a rosier picture of America now than they did four years ago — because of their confidence in President Trump, a new poll found.
Three in four GOP-identified voters who responded to a nationwide CBS News poll said that the nation is better off than it was in 2016.
When asked why they believed the nation was better off, 82 percent cited their faith in Trump and 70 percent gave the state of the economy as the reason.
Seventy percent said it was because Democrats are no longer in power and 64 percent cited their own family’s finances.
Overall, just 35 percent of registered voters who were polled said the country is better off now than four years ago….
More…
And a view of the virus by Republicans that makes me scratch my head….
The American government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic is roughly split along partisan lines, according to a CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday.
The poll found that 31% of registered voters thought the U.S. death toll of 176,000 was “acceptable” when evaluating the U.S. efforts against the coronavirus pandemic,” a number that is buoyed by a 57% majority of Republican voters. Only 10% of Democrat voters thought the death toll was “acceptable” and 67% of independents said it was “unacceptable.”….
More…
Bounce?
A new Morning Consult poll in North Carolina finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 49% to 46%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Cal Cunningham (D) leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47%
Politicalwire…
Biden up 1% point in new Texas Poll…
The MOE HAS gotta be more than that…
But NOT good news for Trump nevertheless…
I have said that Biden’s bounce would register in the middle of the Trump show…..
Biden Leads In Florida
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 48% to 44%.
That’s no evidence of a “bounce.“
Biden has been leading in Florida in several polls for the past few months.
Biden Leads In North Carolina
A new Morning Consult poll in North Carolina finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 49% to 46%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Cal Cunningham (D) leading Sen. Thom Tillis (R), 47% to 39%.
…
Biden Leads In Florida
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Florida finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump in the presidential race, 48% to 44%.
…
Biden Holds Edge In Ohio
A new TargetSmart poll in Ohio finds Joe Biden just ahead of Donald Trump in the presidential race, 47% to 46%.
Politicalwire…
It REALLY DOES look like Schumer will be the Senate Majority leader come Jan 3rd…..
New Yahoo News/YouGov poll finds no convention ‘bounce’ for Biden — but he still leads Trump by 11
Andrew Romano,Yahoo News • August 24, 2020
Last week’s Democratic National Convention did not give Joe Biden even the modest polling “bounce” that some previous nominees have enjoyed, according to the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll.
Yet the virtual, COVID-era event, which most viewers thought went better than expected, did boost Biden’s favorability rating and solidify his support, preserving his 11-point lead over President Trump heading into this week’s Republican National Convention.
For its latest Yahoo News survey, which was conducted from Aug. 21 to Aug. 23, YouGov recontacted respondents who participated in the previous week’s pre-convention poll to gauge how the DNC affected their views.
The head-to-head numbers between Biden and Trump were essentially unchanged, with Biden now ahead 50 percent to 39 percent among registered voters (after leading last week 49 percent to 38 percent).
Since 1968, candidates’ vote shares in national polls have increased by an average of 5 percentage points after conventions. In recent years, polarization has been shrinking those bounces.
Still, this convention — a four-night attack on Trump’s presidency and a paean to Biden’s “decency” — appears to have bolstered the Democratic nominee in other ways. A majority of registered voters (52 percent) now view him favorably, up 3 points from last week. Among independents, Biden’s favorability ticked up 4 points, to 42 percent; among young voters and Latinos, key Democratic constituencies who have been skeptical of the 77-year-old former vice president, it increased by 8 points and 10 points, respectively.
All told, only 3 percent of Biden voters now say “there is a chance I will change my mind between now and the election,” down from 5 percent in the previous poll. Meanwhile, the percentage of Biden voters who say they will be casting their votes “for Biden,” rather than “against Trump,” rose from 51 percent pre-convention to 54 percent post-convention. A full 69 percent of Democrats say the event left them more excited about voting for their party’s nominee. No one polled said the convention made them less excited.
In fact, a plurality of those who watched the DNC (48 percent) say it made them more likely to vote for Biden, versus 15 percent who say “less likely” and 37 percent who say “about the same.”
Fifty-two percent of viewers who went into the convention supporting Biden say the event made them more likely to vote for him — not a huge surprise. Yet 18 percent of viewers who went into the convention supporting Trump also came out of it saying they are now more likely to support the Democrat. That translates into 4 percent of Trump supporters overall (since only 24 percent of Trump supporters watched the convention).
One example of how the DNC shifted views of Biden: In late July, registered voters were 8 percent more likely to disagree (48 percent) than agree (40 percent) with the statement that “the only thing Joe Biden cares about is himself.” Now that gap has grown to 20 percentage points (53 percent disagree, 33 percent agree). Views of Trump on this question are essentially unchanged, with 58 percent of voters agreeing that the only thing the president cares about is himself and just 37 percent disagreeing. ….
https://news.yahoo.com/new-yahoo-news-you-gov-poll-finds-no-convention-bounce-for-biden-but-he-still-leads-trump-by-11-161948380.html
Probably only the inter-convention bounce, but https://www.Electoral-Vote.com/ is giving Biden 388 Electoral votes to Trump’s 132 with Ohio (18) a toss-up.
So much for Mr. Trump’s Electoral College Landslide.
This is on the basis of a 1-point Biden lead (48%-47%) in America’s second-largest state [or Republic], Texas (38) in a PPP poll last Saturday. With Ohio (18) a toss-up (as of Aug. 17th), the largest states with Republican leads or leans are now Tennessee and Indiana, with 11 electors each. All the other big Southern states have some kind of blue tinge: Florida (29), Georgia (16), N. Carolina (15) and Virginia (13).
That also gives Biden (at least for now) all four of the largest delegations: California (55), Texas (38), Florida and New York (29 each).
But — of course — this is all transitory and subject to momentary change, which is very, very possible once the RNC concludes.
And there’s been no such huge change in the projections of http://www.ElectionProjection.com, http://www.RealClearPolitics.com or Taegan Goddard at https://ElectoralVoteMap.com/
Ok ?
Let’s game this out a bit more seriously?
Take away Texas….
Probably North Carolina also…
Now THAT would be more like what Nov 4 would be looking like…..
Oh ….
And Georgia ….
This would still be. nice win for Biden?
With ohio close….
so Biden needs one of the three to up his margin….
Two and he’s got a real solid win…
HE MUST GET A GOOD MARGIN TO SHUT TRUMP DIWN
Well, James, I used the interactive feature onhttps://electoralvotemap.com/ to do just that to see what happens.
And even if you grant the President Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa, Joe Biden still wins by a nail-biting 2000-style hair’s breadth of 271 to 267. Flip the 2nd Congressional Districts of Nebraska (Omaha) and Maine (north & west) from Biden to Trump, then it’s a 269-269 deadlock thrown into today’s House of Representatives, casting one vote per state.
[I haven’t yet checked how each state’s delegation splits.]
If Biden wins just a couple of those states (say, NC & Iowa), his win will be clear but maybe closer than we’d like.
Since there hasn’t been a new Census or reapportionment since 2010-11, that still makes the upper Great Lakes states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota the king-makers. Kellyanne Conway may be taking a break but her 2016 strategy still holds.
Take Florida …..
Forget Iowa….
Give Biden Maine , Mich, Minn, Ariz, and maybe even Ohio!
Now THAT’s what i’m talking about!
Obama took NC i believe ?
Texas and Georgia going to Biden would be landslide territory ….
That link again:
https://electoralvotemap.com/
Just click on a state to toggle it between D, R & tossup.