Biden’s margins IN THE polls are much larger than Hillary Clintons were against Donald Trump up to this point….
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016?
It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden would win the presidency, even if the polls were exactly as wrong as they were four years ago.
The reason is simple: His lead is far wider than Hillary Clinton’s was in the final polls, and large enough to withstand another 2016 polling meltdown.
If polls were off by as much as they were in 2016, Joe Biden would still lead most battleground states.
|TOTALS BASED ON CURRENT POLLS*||IF POLLS ARE AS OFF AS THEY WERE IN 2016|
|CURRENT POLLS||IF POLLS ARE AS OFF AS THEY WERE IN 2016|
|Arizona||Biden +3||Biden <1|
|Florida||Biden +6||Biden +3|
|Michigan||Biden +10||Biden +5|
|North Carolina||Biden +3||Trump +1|
|Pennsylvania||Biden +7||Biden +2|
|Wisconsin||Biden +8||Biden <1|
|U.S. avg.||Biden +9||Biden +7|
This is not to say that President Trump can’t win. There are still nearly four months to go until the election — more than enough time for the race and the polls to change. The race changed on several occasions over the final months in 2016. And this race has already changed significantly in the last four months. According to FiveThirtyEight, three months ago Mr. Biden held a lead of only about four points….
Mr. Biden also enjoys a far wider lead in the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency. His 13-point lead in a Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania published on Wednesday, for instance, puts him in a much stronger position than Mrs. Clinton, who had a four-point lead in the last Monmouth poll of Pennsylvania taken just before the election.
Of course, the polls could be even further off this time than four years ago. But there are also many reasons to think they could be better this time around….