Things seem to be much better for Democrats then they where 6 months ago…
But close across the board…
— We are not dramatically revising our outlook for the presidential election, at least not yet.
— That said, several rating changes in the Electoral College and Senate generally benefit Democrats.
— Many governors are getting high marks for their responses to the crisis; even for those elected in 2018, the most consequential and high-profile test of their tenures is probably happening right now.
Table 1: Crystal Ball Electoral College rating changes
| State | Old Rating | New Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado | Leans Democratic | Likely Democratic |
| Maine | Leans Democratic | Likely Democratic |
| North Carolina | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
Table 2: Crystal Ball Senate rating changes
| Senator | Old Rating | New Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Martha McSally (R-AZ) | Toss-up | Leans Democratic |
| David Perdue (R-GA) | Leans Republican | Likely Republican |
| Susan Collins (R-ME) | Leans Republican | Toss-up |
New ABC poll shows 43% approve 54% disapprove of Trump’s handling of coronavirus.
So essentially Trumps approval of his handling of this crisis is roughly equivalent to his hardcore support overall.
I wouldn’t think it would go more than a few points lower,maybe 40% .
If it does ?That would indicate that he is having slippage in his base.
I would also look for him to get increasingly shrill as a result of this(if that’s possible) .
These increasingly absurd afternoon “briefings” will become even more disjointed.That fool Jared Kushner apparently was on babbling yesterday
His cult orchestrators over at Fox News will be searching for new villains to blame his incompetence and stupidity (Fox entertainer Tucker Carlson lashed out at the medical people last night apparently).
Bad days ahead for the country which will be essentially rudderless as this crisis continues.
If Trump is asked about the March jobless numbers today he could very well lash out. The low unemployment rate was all he wanted to talk about until Election Day and this throws a big monkey wrench in his plans. Expect that to unravel him more than loss of life, sad to say.
The jobless rate will continue to rise for a while….
And will take a while to level off
and begin to drop…
Bit some people will be stupid enough to still vote for Trump…
Two new national polls:
Grinnell College/Selzer: Biden 47%, Trump 43%
The Economist/YouGov: Biden 46%, Trump 42%
Politicalwire…
Trump stuck at 42-43%–guess the “rally” effect is over,
Just did the post on this Scott….
As the normal things go away for more people his support drops…
The question as Jack poised is?
Will people quickly forget their worried and hard times and vote for a President who didn’t give a shit about them and their well being?
Will people who lost their jobs and have companies saying to them they don’t care what they said during the peak of virus they want their back money in a hurry?….Will their be credit ‘hits’ on those who lost their income and had to stop paying their bills?…Will the economic hardship stick top Trump ?
People will be more focused on “competence” over “disruption” this time when the dust settles.
Yes, I know people will freak out when I suggest this and I know it’s basically too late for anything to happen now…
But if there was ever a time for a no-nonsense take charge “centrist” Governor type to beat back the two unpopular parties it would be after something like this.
Joe Biden IS a Centrist US Senate veteran who can work with EVERYBODY to put the country back together AGAIN like his former boss did in 2009…
In agree….
There is NO need for a guy who wants to re-invent the wheel….
THAT guy should get with the program and accept that he’s never gonna be the nominee in a party he isn’t a member of…
America IS gonna have come together to get back on its feet…
That for health, economy, politics and other countries that WILL seek to advance their control over more of the world after their solve their own internal health and economic issues…
Donald Trump WILL leave a BAD TASTE in other countries peoples…
Than IS something the next President WILL and SHOULD be doing….
While disease works against out closeness
Global economies are a MUST for everyone to survive …
Biden has not been running as a centrist in the general election sense. He has taken positions to the left of any eventual nominee in American history. Will he change course?
Does Biden beat Trump on empathy? Certainly. (provided he not run into a voter who dare question him in a critical way)
As I said, a larger premium will be placed on competence. Of course Biden has never been a Governor or a chief executive of anything. Will he provide the right contrast to Trump? That will of course be the question.
Trumpworld will certainly stop at nothing to portray him as a bumbler and a senile one at that.
More fantasy of a centrist governor running as an independent.
Whatever keeps your mind busy. Hell write a book or screenplay in your shelter at home time. Why not?
The rest of us will focus on the choice ahead of us. And I feel good about mine.
shelter at home? Ha. I am still having to go into work five days a week. No time for a screenplay, but if I did, it might have to touch on the topic of “Where the heck is Melania?”
Yes….
Some can stay home…
School’s are paying their teachers but those teachers are spending their time contacting students on the phone and on line…
Some places ARE starting to send essential people back to work for limited time…
And YES…
Some pope NEVER stopped working…
With no Cubs baseball your weekends are probably more open right?
Might as well channel any creative juices you have into a center right West Wing alternate universe since you won’t have a real third party candidate to support this year.
Ha, ha, ha…
Maybe the HHR guys will see the light on their main man?????
Last October, I decided to watch all 180 Cubs games from the 2016 season on YouTube, in order of course. I figured it might take me 10-15 years, if I live that long.
This break in the sports world will at least help me make up a little bit of time on that estimate. I am on Game 20.
I’ve been watching old Mets and Duke basket ball games!
Some popes basically stop working. Look at Benedict.