Silver WAS firmly in the Bernie Sanders camp…
Don’t seem like that anymore…
@NateSilver538
The problem for Bernie (and Steyer) is that the trendlines in South Carolina are strong for Biden. His leads are bigger in post-Nevada polls than in pre-Nevada polls. And they’re bigger in post-debate polls than in pre-debate polls.
….
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Sanders is averaging about 27% in recent polls of non-Southern states and about 20% in recent polls of Sourhern states. The data remains a little hard to reconcile with polls showing him in the 28-30% range nationally.
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I spent a lot of time looking at cases like these in designing our polling average algorithm and in general, when you see a clear trend like that in the last few days before a primary with quite a bit of polling, it turns out to be fairly robust.
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
UPDATED Super Tuesday win probabilities, where you can see the impact of Biden’s good polling in SC & other Southern states. Bernie looks as good as ever outside the South. CA—Sanders 86%, Biden 9% TX—Biden 45%, Sanders 42%, Bloomberg 9% NC—Biden 45%, Sanders 35%, Bloomberg 19%
image…fivethirtyeight.com
Two new CNN polls out give Sanders WAY higher numbers in California and Texas then EVERY other poll and the Averages…
A new CNN poll in Texas finds Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field with 29%, followed by Joe Biden at 20%, Michael Bloomberg at 18% and Elizabeth Warren is at 15%. No other candidate reaches double-digits.
In California, Sanders leads with 35%, followed by Warren at 14%, Biden at 13% and Bloomberg at 12%….
Politicalwire…
…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Since this question comes up a lot… the model anticipates future bounces. In this case, it anticipates a bounce from Biden winning South Carolina. It thinks that bounce would be enough to turn Texas into a ~tie, even though Bernie is ~5 points ahead in the polling average now.
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Connor Williams
@connorjwills
Replying to
@geoffreyvs
and
@NateSilver538
@baseballot
Question about the model: why does it show Biden winning Texas with 26% of the vote (see left) when it also shows Sanders with highest polling average vote (see right)?
Except for the two CNN polls?
Nate Silver
It is not clear if Sanders is steady, rising or falling.
It does seem pretty clear that Biden is rising.
We’re now up to 3 out of 3 post-debate polls that have him >20% (YouGov, Morning Consult, SurveyUSA), which hasn’t been happening much lately.
Eight percent of California Democrats is strikingly unimpressive for someone of Joe Biden’s experience and fame.
All sorts of lying dog-faced pony soldiers there.
Were the Pathfinder John C. Frémont (the first presidential candidate of your party*) alive today, he’d show you what kind of dog-faced pony soldiers live in the Golden State.
* [not that failed Senatorial candidate from Illinois]
Pardon me:
Were the Pathfinder John C. Frémont (the first presidential candidate of your party*) alive today, he’d show you what kind of ^lying^ dog-faced pony soldiers live in the Golden State.
* [not that failed Senatorial candidate from Illinois]
Ah for the days of Free Soil and Free Men.
Now, all we are offered are free college and free reefer.
Hi, James, I think you were trying to edit out the post where I talked about dog-faced pony soldiers without the lying part, and then inadvertently also deleted these two comments (which appear in the sidebar, but not here):
My amended comment beginning, “Pardon me: Were the Pathfinder John C. Frémont (th…”
https://politicaldog101.com/2020/02/nate-silver-points-to-a-joe-biden-surge-before-the-south-carolina-primary-vote/comment-page-1/#comment-39691
and CG’s response beginning “Ah for the days of Free Soil and Free Men. Now, al…”
https://politicaldog101.com/2020/02/nate-silver-points-to-a-joe-biden-surge-before-the-south-carolina-primary-vote/comment-page-1/#comment-39692
Is there any way of recovering and restoring these historically-enlightening posts ?
The post is back…
I thought it was a dupe…
Seriously Bernie😳???
POLITICO
@politico
Hours before South Carolina’s polls open, Bernie Sanders said at a breakfast yesterday that he has “a shot to win this” after beginning the primary 30 percentage points behind Joe Biden.
Silver seems to be hedging his bets….
And giving himself wiggle room is Biden outperforms today…
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
One other thing to watch: SC has more people and more delegates than the states have voted so far. If Biden performs at the top of his range (wins by >20), there’s a chance that he could become the overall pledged delegate and/or popular vote leader in the Democratic primaries.