538 does a long piece on the upcoming US Senate impeachment vote and their numbers come back to about where mine are….
I’m going with 55/45 against the charges….
538 has their call at 56/44 against the House charges….
There are a lot of competing incentives at work in the Senate regarding impeachment. The way it all shakes out, however, is that the removal vote is at about 56-44 in Trump’s favor. That could, of course, change based on additional evidence emerging, public opinion shifting and Republican senators changing their minds. But right now, it’s just hard to see the Senate trial of Trump taking place with any real chance that 67 senators will support removing him from office….
My early 55-45 to acquit would have Manchin D-WV) and Jones (D-Ala) joining the Republicans…
I reserve the right to change this number….